Africa Economics Weekly

Kenya IMF loan, South Africa’s MTBPS, US election

South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) unveiled this week was positioned as a pro-growth budget, but the reality is that the government is sticking to a tight fiscal stance...

1st November 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Fiscal package should limit downside risk to growth

The NPC standing committee is set to approve a fiscal package at its meeting next week. A large proportion will likely be used to tackle local government debt, but it's unclear how much (if any) will...

1st November 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Markets Focus

The US election and market implications for EMs

We think that if vice president Harris wins the US presidential election next week, she would be more likely to stick to policy continuity, and EM risk premia would remain low. If former president...

1st November 2024 · 15 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Oct .24)

The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But the extent of the recovery hinges on the scale of fiscal stimulus, which remains uncertain. Our base case is...

1st November 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP...

31st October 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Disinflation and looser monetary policy are setting the scene for stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we expect growth to pick up in the coming quarters. But there are several headwinds...

31st October 2024 · 0 mins read

China Rapid Response

Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary)

Hong Kong’s economy contracted sharply in Q3. GDP surprised significantly to the downside, with growth of 0.4% q/q in Q2 more than reversed by a 1.1% q/q fall in Q3 (Bloomberg median: +0.2%, CE: -0.2%...

31st October 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China PMIs (Oct. 2024)

The PMIs have overstated the weakness in China’s economy during the past year. But they still provide some sense of the direction of travel. The good news is that the surveys point to an improvement...

31st October 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Sep.)

The latest Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for September were a bit stronger than expected, although GDP growth still probably slowed over Q3 as a whole towards 3.0% y/y.

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024)

Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Update

Godongwana talks up growth, but austerity is order of the day

The South African Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was presented as a “pro-growth” statement, but the numbers underscore that the government has no room to loosen the fiscal stance...

30th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Mozambique’s instability heightens default risks

The outbreak of unrest in Mozambique after contested elections is unlikely to have a large impact on growth in the near term. But any attempts by the government to loosen fiscal policy to appease...

30th October 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

Demand from EMs would help cushion Trump tariffs

EMs are playing a growing role as substitute markets for Chinese exporters that face rising trade barriers in DMs. A second trade war with a re-elected President Trump would only accelerate that shift...

30th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q3)

The weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe, which showed that the Hungarian economy slipped back into recession last quarter, suggests that stagnating demand from the euro-zone is...

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: Financial sector drives a strong expansion

Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth picked up in September, bringing Q3 growth in-line with official estimates. While this acceleration was broad-based across sectors, the main...

29th October 2024 · 4 mins read