Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul. '24) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 33.4% in July, the first time it had slowed in 18 months, as the passthrough from previous naira falls has finally started to faded. With inflation having... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Structural boost outweighing cyclical drag on exports EM goods export growth has accelerated over the past year despite a slowdown in economic growth in DMs. We think this is being driven by three structural factors: Chinese overcapacity, the AI... 15th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul. ‘24) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 1.5% y/y in July, but we expect that the headline rate will ease back over the remainder of this year and potentially fall back below 1% y/y by... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jul. 2024) After slowing in Q2, economic momentum appears to have stabilised somewhat last month, with a pick-up in consumer spending and services activity largely offsetting a slowdown in investment and... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa experiencing a two speed recovery South African economy looks to have recorded a pick-up in growth in Q2, but the recovery is operating at two speeds with retail sales and manufacturing on the up, while the mining sector remains a... 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan’s tourism sector hit hard by spillovers of war Jordan’s economy has been among the hardest hit from the indirect spillovers of the war in Gaza. While severe balance of payments of strains are likely to be avoided, GDP growth will suffer as the key... 14th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q2 2024) The larger-than-expected pick-up in Polish GDP growth in Q2, to 1.5% q/q (from 0.8% in Q1), suggests that the risks to our forecast for GDP to expand by 3% over the year as a whole are now tilted to... 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Broad credit growth ticked up in July, while bank loan growth only slowed a touch. (See Chart 1.) We expect a continued acceleration in government bond issuance to support a further expansion of... 13th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q2) and Consumer Prices (Jul.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q2, to 4.0% y/y, suggests that the economy has lost a bit of momentum. But overheating pressures remain alive and the increase in inflation to 9.1% y/y in July... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Market turmoil and Africa, Uganda and Kenya rate cuts Idiosyncratic factors seemed to play a bigger role than the recent global financial market turmoil in driving African markets this week. But while the fall in oil prices may be overdone, African... 9th August 2024 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the latest moves in EM currencies Heightened US recession worries have helped unwound some of the stretched positions in high-carry EM currencies, resulting in their exchange rates moving closer to their “fair values” (judging by our... 9th August 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul. 2024) Consumer price inflation ticked up in July, but this was entirely due to a weather-related rise in food price inflation. Producer price deflation was unchanged. While a ramp-up in fiscal spending... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly US growth worries, BSP’s close call, Bangladesh turmoil Our US team believe that while a soft landing for the US economy is still the most likely outcome, the risk of a hard landing has risen. Vietnam stands out as the most vulnerable country in Asia to a... 9th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) Mexico’s central bank opted to reduce its policy rate by 25bp, to 10.75%, at today’s meeting and the statement generally retained the moderately dovish tone from the last one. We think further rate... 8th August 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC to remain timid despite renminbi turnaround The recent batch of weaker-than-expected US data and resulting global market fallout hasn’t significantly altered China’s economic outlook. While US recession risks have risen somewhat, a soft landing... 8th August 2024 · 7 mins read