China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (Mar. 2024)

Despite a larger-than-expected y/y fall in export values, export volumes climbed to record highs. Nonetheless, we still think export volumes will grow more slowly this year than they did in 2023...

12th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE inflation to rebound before long

While inflation fell further across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in March, we think that the recent run of good CPI news is largely over. We expect inflation to rise back above central banks’...

11th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Nigeria stops ways and means use, but FX debt to rise

Nigeria’s authorities have ceased central bank deficit monetisation via the ways and means facility. But the government will struggle to finance its ambitious spending plans – particularly given the...

11th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s policy shift, Saudi gigaprojects, Morocco GDP

Just over a month ago Egypt’s authorities underwent their dramatic shift to economic orthodoxy and the signs so far are more positive than in previous instances. The pound is more flexible, inflation...

11th April 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2024)

Capital flows into EMs have continued to rise in recent weeks, aided by robust global risk appetite. While yesterday’s strong US CPI release has clouded the outlook for Fed interest rate cuts and...

11th April 2024 · 3 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar. 2024)

CPI inflation rose less than expected in March but is still trending upwards. We think an easing of food price deflation and the ongoing modest economic recovery will support a slow reflation in the...

11th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.)

The stabilisation in Russian inflation at 7.7% y/y in March was in line with expectations and adds to evidence that inflation pressures have continued to cool in recent months. Central bank governor...

10th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (March 2024)

The slightly softer-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for March of 3.9% y/y keeps the door open to 50bp interest rate cuts at the Copom meetings both next month and in June. But with underlying...

10th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM sovereign default risks still high in a few places

The incidence of sovereign debt distress has continued to decline across the emerging world in recent weeks, driven mainly by an improvement in global risk appetite and the corresponding narrowing of...

10th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Thailand Monetary Policy Announcement

Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today resisted pressure from the government to loosen monetary policy, but with growth set to remain weak and inflationary pressures very subdued, we still think rate...

10th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Focus

Taiwan: Global AI spending will drive rapid growth

Taiwan will be one of the main beneficiaries of a lengthy global AI investment boom. We expect its economy to growth much faster over the rest of this decade than it did during the 2010s.

9th April 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil’s fiscal framework already on the rocks

Media reports that Brazil’s government is already seeking to water down the latest fiscal rule (which has been in place for less than a year) reinforces the point we made when the rule was first...

9th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Bahrain needs to follow Oman’s path to reduce debt fears

Oman and Bahrain both recorded sharp increases in their government debt-to-GDP ratios in the second half of the last decade, but while Oman’s public finances have improved dramatically since then...

8th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar. ‘24)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 35.7% y/y in February to 33.3% y/y in March despite the near 40% fall in the pound’s official exchange rate last month. That said, the effects of the...

8th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia GDP (Q4) & Activity Data (Feb.)

The 4.9% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q4 was slightly below expectations but it followed an upwards revision to growth in Q3 (to 5.7%) and suggests that the economy continued to run hot at the end of...

5th April 2024 · 2 mins read