Latin America Economics Update Five key challenges for Mexico’s next president The latest polls ahead of Mexico’s election on 2nd June suggest that Claudia Sheinbaum, protégée of incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo), is likely to become the country’s next... 17th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will EM central banks respond to the currency sell-off? The recent bout of EM currency weakness may prompt (further) FX intervention, particularly in Asia, to stem currency volatility. Turkey’s central bank is likely to hike rates at its meeting next week... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.3% y/y, in March will not be enough to sway the SARB from starting its easing cycle. 17th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update What if the Fed doesn’t cut? Local factors will determine the next moves by most of Asia’s central banks, not the actions of the US Fed. We expect policymakers in Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Korea to lower interest... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q1) & Activity (Mar. 2024) Stronger-than-expected official GDP figures indicate that China’s economy gained momentum in Q1, thanks to policy support. But monthly activity data suggest that this policy-driven recovery is shaky... 16th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed to 1.6% y/y in March on the back of weaker food and non-food inflation. While there’s likely to be a slight bump up in inflation in the second half of... 15th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Iran’s strike: what next for Israel? The Iranian strike over the weekend has been largely shrugged off by Israel’s financial markets and on its own is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. The key uncertainty now is how Israel... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) Nigeria recorded another acceleration in headline inflation to 33.2% y/y in March as the previous falls in the naira have continued to push up prices. And while the naira has staged a recovery... 15th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Fall in EM yields may be delayed but is still on the cards Inflationary pressures both domestically and in the US may keep government bond yields in emerging markets high for a while yet. But we think they will eventually fall later in the year. 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zuma to stand, SA activity, Nigeria fuel prices A court decision this week in South Africa has laid the ground for former president Zuma to stand in next month’s elections and opinion polls suggest that his MK Party will become the third largest in... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC faces difficult choice as dollar strengthens The PBOC’s support of the renminbi against a strengthening dollar is resulting in a trade-weighted appreciation of the currency. This risks eroding Chinese export competitiveness and has a... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Higher oil prices bolster Russia’s war economy The latest rise in oil prices presents challenges to the near-term outlook for most countries in Emerging Europe by weakening their terms of trade and pushing up inflation – which already looked set... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea election blow for President Yoon, Taiwan export boom The poor performance of President Yoon’s PPP party in this week’s parliamentary elections in Korea will make it even harder for the president to push through his conservative reform agenda. That said... 12th April 2024 · 6 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The fall in headline consumer price inflation in March to a 10-month low will comfort policymakers and, looking ahead, we think headline inflation will reach the RBI’s 4% long-term target by the... 12th April 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Manufacturing ambitions across the political spectrum The general election kicks off in a week and manifestos are finally being released. Manifestos are rarely followed closely in India, but nevertheless it is encouraging that there is broad agreement... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
