India Rapid Response

India Flash Composite PMI (Apr. 2024)

The flash composite PMI reading for April suggests that the strength of economic activity over the past few quarters has continued through to the eve of the election. Looking ahead, while growth is...

23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

China trip notes – sentiment still depressed

A week spent visiting clients, contacts and friends in Beijing and Shanghai has underlined the extent of the pessimistic shift in sentiment within China.

23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Another tough year ahead for Korean consumers

A weak labour market and high interest rates will continue to weigh heavily on Korea’s consumer sector this year. The poor prospects for consumer spending is one of the main reasons we think overall...

22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Time to worry about inflation (again)?

Recent currency falls and higher oil prices are unlikely to put significant upward pressure on consumer prices across Asia. We continue to expect inflation in the region to remain low over the coming...

22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria naira rebound, SA election and late rate cuts

The naira’s surprising recent recovery appears to have been driven by FX reserve sales and the currency risks becoming overvalued again. We think renewed naira weakness is on the cards over the rest...

19th April 2024 · 6 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Service sector picking up, overcapacity worsening

The GDP breakdown suggests that the acceleration in growth last quarter was driven by the service sector, although the parts most dependent on consumer spending fared less well. And despite the recent...

19th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel-Iran strikes, Poland utility prices, IMF forecasts

Tensions between Israel and Iran ratcheted up this week, although there's at least hope that both sides are now trying to avoid any further escalation. For Israel’s economy, the pressing issue is the...

19th April 2024 · 9 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

How will Bank Indonesia respond to the slump in the rupiah?

With the rupiah coming under further downward pressure against the US dollar this week, a rate hike by Bank Indonesia at its scheduled meeting on Wednesday cannot be ruled out. However, our sense is...

19th April 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Election begins, RBI intervention, Middle East tensions

India's mammoth general election has just kicked off. Results will be announced on 4 th June and as things stand, PM Modi’s BJP looks on course for another big win. Meanwhile, the rupee fell to a...

19th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Will Copom break its forward guidance?

Investors are no longer pricing in a 50bp interest rate cut at the Brazilian central bank meeting next month, despite the forward guidance at the March meeting signalling such a move. While we think...

18th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Iran-Israel tensions, Gulf floods, Egypt’s preliminary budget

The ratcheting up of tensions between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict. For now, it seems unlikely that the Gulf states will get drawn in unless there is a serious...

18th April 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (April 2024)

Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at a country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of last...

18th April 2024 · 1 min read

Event

EM Drop-In: What currency sell-offs mean for emerging markets

1713880800

The first Fed rate cut of this cycle is now looking like a second-half event and EM investors – and policymakers – are having to adjust to the delay.

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s economy may be turning a corner

South Africa’s latest hard activity data provided some encouraging signs that the economy may be turning the corner even if it comes too late to help the ANC’s hopes of keeping its majority in...

17th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia’s foreign investment struggles persist

Saudi Arabia has yet to be able to raise foreign direct investment towards its Vision 2030 goals, prompting a turn to the Public Investment Fund (PIF) to prop up investment spending. Unless the...

17th April 2024 · 3 mins read