China Economics Focus Overcapacity will keep inflation near zero Most analysts expect China’s inflation rate to rebound to around 2% by 2026. In contrast, we think that persistent imbalances between supply and demand will keep it close to zero for the foreseeable... 30th April 2024 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: risk of fiscal complacency creeping in The Polish government’s white paper on Monday set out a scathing review of the previous government’s fiscal record and highlighted the challenges facing the public finances, but if we’ve learned... 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Apr. 24) China’s senior leadership has today signalled further fiscal and monetary support for the economy and renewed efforts to stabilise the housing market. That should help prolong the recent economic... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q1) The slightly better-than-expected Q1 GDP figures out of Hungary and Czechia suggest that economic recoveries had a little more momentum at the start of this year than we previously thought and that... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Apr. 2024) While the Caixin services PMI edged down last month, it dropped by less than its official counterpart, and the survey data for April is still consistent with some improvement in momentum since the... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Panama’s next president to face growing fiscal challenge José Raúl Mulino, the front-runner in Panama’s presidential election scheduled for Sunday, has pledged to reinvigorate growth. But as we’ve been arguing for some time, the economy’s time as Latin... 29th April 2024 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the Fed and most other developed markets (DM) central banks will be able to ease... 29th April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What Trump’s return would mean for EMs All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal... 29th April 2024 · 13 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: What Trump’s return would mean for emerging markets 1715868000 A second Trump presidency would almost certainly lead to a protectionist lurch from the US, with profound implications for the emerging world.
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a mixed bag in April, but our regional GDP-weighted measure of sentiment rose to a fresh two-year high... 29th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly No SARB rate cuts in 2024, SSA subsidy removal The SARB’s biannual Monetary Policy Review published this week, which showed less confidence in South Africa’s disinflation trend and reiterated the desire to move to a lower inflation target... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine gets a boost, but funding fatigue still a risk The $61bn US aid package for Ukraine approved this week will provide a much needed boost to Ukraine’s efforts on the battlefield, but the delays that the funding has faced over recent months casts a... 26th April 2024 · 10 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (April 2024) The slightly lower-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for the first half of this month, of 3.8% y/y, and signs of softening underlying core price pressures might just be enough to give Copom... 26th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The hawkish communications accompanying the decision by the Russian central bank (CBR) to leave its key policy rate on hold today suggests that monetary easing will probably arrive later than we... 26th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Bumpy ride back to target Progress in getting back to central bank targets has slowed in several major economies. In advanced economies, a rebound in energy inflation has offset most of the drag on headline rates from lower... 26th April 2024 · 17 mins read
