Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has largely been shrugged off by the oil market and risk premia in the Gulf remain low. Even so, growth will remain weak in the Gulf this year...

24th April 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Update

Nigeria: A slower economy risks turning MPC doveish

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary policy reforms have injected a welcome dose of momentum back into the country’s policy shift. But the minutes to the latest MPC meetings also suggest that...

24th April 2024 · 4 mins read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: Cyclical recovery still underway

Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests the economy saw a healthy expansion in March, driven by the continued strength of industry. While we think that fiscal support will keep fuelling the economy in...

24th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

How will China’s trade surplus impact EMs?

While EM policymakers haven’t raised concerns about Chinese overcapacity in the same way that their counterparts in the US and Europe have, they too are facing widening trade deficits with China. We...

24th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.)

The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to opt for a smaller 50bp cut to its base rate today, to 7.75%, provides support to our view that its monetary easing...

23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Argentina: initial fiscal successes but more work to do

The better-than-expected budget figures out of Argentina at the start of the year are undoubtedly good news and show that the fiscal adjustment is happening more quickly than we’d expected. That said...

23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s fragmenting parliament a fiscal headache

South Africa’s upcoming general election looks likely to result in a much more fragmented parliament and mark a shift to coalition government. The lesson from elsewhere in the emerging world is that...

23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Mar.)

Poland’s weaker-than-expected activity data for March suggest the risk to our forecast for GDP growth of 2.5% y/y in Q1 (up from 1.0% y/y in Q4) are tilted to the downside. While we maintain our above...

23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

UAE set to be top of the class again in 2024

The UAE’s economy outperformed the other Gulf economies in 2023 and we think that this outperformance will continue this year.

23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Flash Composite PMI (Apr. 2024)

The flash composite PMI reading for April suggests that the strength of economic activity over the past few quarters has continued through to the eve of the election. Looking ahead, while growth is...

23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

China trip notes – sentiment still depressed

A week spent visiting clients, contacts and friends in Beijing and Shanghai has underlined the extent of the pessimistic shift in sentiment within China.

23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Another tough year ahead for Korean consumers

A weak labour market and high interest rates will continue to weigh heavily on Korea’s consumer sector this year. The poor prospects for consumer spending is one of the main reasons we think overall...

22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Time to worry about inflation (again)?

Recent currency falls and higher oil prices are unlikely to put significant upward pressure on consumer prices across Asia. We continue to expect inflation in the region to remain low over the coming...

22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria naira rebound, SA election and late rate cuts

The naira’s surprising recent recovery appears to have been driven by FX reserve sales and the currency risks becoming overvalued again. We think renewed naira weakness is on the cards over the rest...

19th April 2024 · 6 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Service sector picking up, overcapacity worsening

The GDP breakdown suggests that the acceleration in growth last quarter was driven by the service sector, although the parts most dependent on consumer spending fared less well. And despite the recent...

19th April 2024 · 5 mins read