Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (May)

Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold as expected at 5.75% today and we don’t expect any change for some time. Still, there is now a growing possibility of an interest rate cut...

9th May 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE ups the ante with OPEC, review of April’s PMIs

The UAE has raised its oil production capacity even further in a sign that it wants to raise actual output. But with rumours growing that OPEC+ may extend its current low oil output quotas beyond June...

9th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Stubborn services inflation could slow rate cuts further

The persistent strength in core services inflation in some EMs outside Asia raises the chances that central banks cut interest rates by less than the consensus expects this year, not least because it...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Update

How can South Africa tackle its public debt problem?

The South African government has turned to fiscal austerity in an effort to stabilise the public debt ratio and to keep investors on board, but this is likely to become harder to do post-election...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

Economic implications of the heatwave

Extreme heat across parts of India could be particularly damaging to the agriculture sector through both a drop in crop yields and a fall in labour productivity. But industry and services aren’t...

9th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 33.3% y/y in March to 32.5% y/y in April and we think that inflation will continue to ease over the rest of this year and into 2025. That said, while...

9th May 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (Apr. 2024)

Export values returned to growth last month after contracting in March, but this was mainly due to a lower base for comparison. Export volumes were little changed in April following a pullback in the...

9th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (May 2024)

The Brazilian central bank’s decision to cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 10.50% (rather than opt for another 50bp step) and drop its forward guidance confirm that most of the rate cuts in this easing...

8th May 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

China’s export success also due to weakness at home

China’s leadership argues that the country’s export success in industries like auto production is a reflection of its technological strength. It understandably doesn’t want to focus on another factor...

8th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico: fiscal concerns return to the spotlight

The Mexican government’s pre-election spending spree means that the next administration will have its work cut out to put the country’s public finances back onto a stable footing. Claudia Sheinbaum...

8th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia can stick with its loose fiscal stance (for now)

Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widened further at the start of this year and, for now at least, the government seems comfortable with maintaining the loose fiscal stance and issuing more debt. If oil...

7th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA growth, Nigeria petrol subsidy, Kenya floods

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for April released this week added to the evidence that growth will pick up over the coming quarters. But stronger growth is coming too late to help the ANC’s election...

3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

What would Trump’s return mean for India?

With Donald Trump’s protectionist approach to trade on full display this week, we look at the implications of a possible second Trump presidency for India. While a 10% tariff on US imports could dent...

3rd May 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Which survey data are giving the best steer on activity?

The two survey measures of activity released out of Central and Eastern Europe this week appeared to offer quite different insights into the performance of the region’s economies, but we’re more...

3rd May 2024 · 7 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Developer financing still weak, green loans surge

The continued weakness of credit demand is holding back China's economic recovery. While lending to manufacturers continues to be strong – particularly for those engaged in green technology production...

3rd May 2024 · 7 mins read