India Economics Weekly Apple’s ambitions, Iran port deal, Russian oil The government's announcement this week of a long-term contract to develop and operate a port in Iran through which India will be able to transport goods into Central Asia is an illustration of how... 17th May 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Apr. 2024) Industrial production continued to accelerate thanks to strong exports, but growth on most other indicators slowed, pointing to softer domestic demand. We expect a renewed pick-up over the coming... 17th May 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Examining the divergence between EM credit spreads and FX For much of the past year, the dollar has strengthened against emerging market (EM) currencies even as EM sovereign dollar bond spreads have narrowed. One way or another, that is unlikely to last. 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi gigaproject dilemma, Ras el-Hekma boost, Tunisia Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week add to the evidence that spending on gigaprojects may be curtailed. But his comments pinning this on concerns about... 16th May 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update India’s geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential... 16th May 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Destocking could offer a short-run fix to property woes Government purchases of unsold housing may help to stabilise China’s property sector in the near-term, alleviating a key economic headwind. But they won’t prevent the sector from shrinking... 16th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q1 2024) The 14.1% q/q annualised rebound in Israeli GDP in Q1 was slightly weaker than expected and left GDP almost 3% below its pre-war level. The latest indicators suggest that activity is likely to recover... 16th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Event LatAm Drop-In: Mexico’s next president – Economic risk and opportunity 1717423200 The winner of Mexico’s presidential election on 2nd June will have a busy in-tray, from taking advantage of the opportunities presented by near-shoring to the challenges posed
China Economics Focus China’s overseas lending push has stalled Overseas loans by Chinese banks peaked in late 2021 and have since been curtailed in response to increased debt problems among EM borrowers. While these strains are partly a consequence of global... 16th May 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that activity in Europe picked up at the start of this year, and... 15th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can Egypt take advantage of a weak pound? Egypt’s shift back toward economic orthodoxy will result in near-term economic pain, but it could also pave the way for faster economic growth over a longer horizon. Part of that will rest on Egypt... 15th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM sovereign bonds may outperform US Treasuries We expect total returns from both US dollar-denominated, and especially local-currency (LC), emerging market (EM) sovereign bonds to trump, in general, those from US Treasuries in the next couple of... 15th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2024) The Q1 GDP figures released out of Central and Eastern Europe this morning show that growth strengthened across most of the region at the start of this year, and we expect a further modest pick up... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 1.6% y/y in April and, while we think that there may be a slight acceleration at the start of Q3, the bigger picture is that inflation in the... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update US tariffs tighten the ratchet again The tariffs announced today on US imports from China won’t cause much direct economic damage since trade in the affected goods is already low. But US economic sanctions on China seem to act like a... 14th May 2024 · 5 mins read
