Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to cut interest rates in October The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%) and appeared to indicate that interest rates would not be cut until it was confident that inflation would fall back to target. Given our... 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: How India’s election outcome could shape its economic outlook 1717509600 The results of India’s multi-week general election on 4th June aren’t expected to hold many surprises about the country’s next government, with polls suggesting Narendra Modi
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi GDP growth will hinge on OPEC+ decision After exiting recession in Q1, Saudi Arabia’s economy should continue to expand over the rest of this year on the back of strong private non-oil growth and higher oil output. But next month’s OPEC... 22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s bumper trade surplus set to shrink The sharp rise in Brazil’s goods exports and the widening of the trade surplus since 2019 have been a point of strength for the economy. But we think these will reverse course before long. This feeds... 21st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (May) The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to cut its base rate by 50bp again today, to 7.25%, will be followed by more cautious monetary easing over the rest of this year. We currently forecast... 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM savings problems not just a China story Some of the structural problems in China’s economy have their roots in its excessively high savings rate (and underconsumption). For many other EMs, savings rates are also a problem but for the... 21st May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Political turmoil undermining Vietnam’s appeal The political turmoil in Vietnam, which has led to a number of key leaders being sacked from their posts, is undermining the country’s reputation for stability, which until now has been one of its key... 20th May 2024 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran’s succession plans unlikely to fix economic woes The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power... 20th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2024) Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at the country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1) and Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 5.4% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q1 was a touch stronger than expected and, taken together with the rise in inflation in April, adds further evidence to the view that the war effort is causing the... 17th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly DR votes, Lula intervenes, Argentine officials cheer Dominicans are set to re-elect President Luis Abinader on Sunday and there's widespread hope among investors that his second term will see further measures to improve the public finances. Elsewhere... 17th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s reshuffle & China ties, lithium-ion batteries The political reshuffle in Russia this week, in which Putin replaced the defence minister and gave more responsibility to a number of ministers in charge of the economy, suggests a greater focus on... 17th May 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property support, imbalances growing, tariff retaliation The property support measures outlined today are significant. If local governments and SOEs take advantage of the funding on offer to buy unsold inventory from developers, sales would rise by around... 17th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BI on hold, new leaders, Biden tariffs The recent recovery in the rupiah means Bank Indonesia is unlikely to follow up April’s surprise hike with another interest rate increase when it meets on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Korea could prove to be... 17th May 2024 · 8 mins read
