Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May 2024)

Low oil output in the Gulf has constrained economic growth so far this year and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting will prove pivotal to the outlook over the rest of this year. Elsewhere in Middle East and...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024)

Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus...

28th May 2024 · 0 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2024)

The decline in Brazilian inflation to 3.7% y/y in the first half of this month, coupled with signs of easing price pressures in some core categories, will provide relief to policymakers at the central...

28th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA elections: Can the ANC hold on? Kenya-US visit

There’s less than a week to go until South Africa’s pivotal election and there remains significant uncertainty about the ANC’s likely vote share and, if it’s forced to go into coalition, who it will...

24th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Is the Turkish lira turning a corner?

Turkish policymakers have this week been extolling the lira’s recent stability. And the surge in foreign capital inflows after March’s rate hike suggests that there is a growing risk that the currency...

24th May 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s vote, Chile’s rate cut, Argentina’s trade surplus

The dramatic improvement in Argentina’s trade balance has helped the central bank to rebuild its FX reserves, but this has only been made possible because domestic demand has collapsed. A weaker...

24th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria GDP (Q1 2024)

Nigeria’s GDP growth slowed to 3.0% y/y in Q1, driven by a halving in the oil sector growth rate, alongside high inflation and tighter monetary conditions continuing to drag on the non-oil economy. We...

24th May 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

What would an end to the property crisis look like?

Resolution of China’s property crisis would result in residential sales being substantially higher than today. Sales could rise by a third. But we wouldn’t expect prices to increase by much, if at all...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Bank deposit exodus, chip self-sufficiency

The recent slowdown in deposit growth does not signal a recovery in risk appetite among firms and households. On the contrary, it is being driven by their reluctance to borrow and their preference for...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Frontier Markets Wrap

Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low?

The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and...

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi-US pact nears, MENA bond issuances, Iran election

Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are nearing to a grand deal on security and the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear program would, if confirmed, swing the Kingdom back towards the US’s sphere of influence...

23rd May 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Croatia’s outperformance in Europe to continue

Croatia has established itself as one of the fastest growing economies in the EU and we think that it will maintain GDP growth of around 3% p.a. over 2024-26. Income convergence – which has been rapid...

23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (May)

Turkey’s central bank left its main policy rate unchanged at 50.00% again today and the statement continued to emphasise the need to keep interest rates high for a prolonged period. While the...

23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Apr.)

Poland’s activity data for April revealed that retail sales growth softened a bit more than expected last month, but that the weakness in industry in March was just a temporary blip. On balance, we...

23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Bank of Korea to cut interest rates in October

The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%) and appeared to indicate that interest rates would not be cut until it was confident that inflation would fall back to target. Given our...

23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read