China Economics Focus What to expect at the Third Plenum The Third Plenum may conclude with a pledge of comprehensive reform in areas spanning the private sector, manufacturing, innovation, social security, economic management and more. That may excite hope... 18th June 2024 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea: growth to slow, inflation to fall, rates to be cut Korea’s economy rebounded strongly last quarter but there are already signs it is losing momentum, and we expect growth to struggle over the coming year. Export growth is likely to ease a little, but... 18th June 2024 · 10 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (May 2024) May’s activity data were a mixed bag with an uptick in retail sales and slowdown in industrial production partially reversing the recent trend of strength on the supply side and weaker demand. 17th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) The further rise in Russian in inflation to 8.3% y/y in May was stronger than expected, and means that an interest rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting in July now looks all but certain. While... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria food prices, Kenya budget, ANC-DA deal A surge in food prices in Nigeria this week presents a challenge to the optimistic tone the authorities are trying to strike on the inflation outlook. To contain these inflation risks for good, the... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EV tariffs, European election results, May inflation The EU’s new tariffs on EV imports from China announced this week could provide a boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe by pushing Chinese carmakers to set up more factories in the region... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Bank loan growth in China was the slowest on record in May, but accelerated government bond issuance helped broader credit growth edge up. Fiscal loosening should support further gains in the near... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Europe leaves the road open for China’s EV-makers China protested the European Commission’s imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles this week but, if the EU goes no further, China’s government is likely to see this as a... 14th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Morocco’s EVs to fuel auto boom, Aramco issuance The EU’s tariffs on EV imports from China may encourage Chinese firms to raise investments into Morocco, whose auto sector is growing rapidly on the back of expansion plans from both Chinese and... 13th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus FX scarcity: will the pain point ease? The authorities in several major emerging markets, including Egypt, Argentina and Nigeria, have taken important policy steps recently that may allow them to ease restrictions on access to foreign... 13th June 2024 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With economic activity strengthening across Emerging Europe and inflationary pressures... 13th June 2024 · 1 min read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (May 2024) Consumer price inflation came in cooler than most expected last month, which should reassure the RBI as it considers when to begin its easing cycle. We remain comfortable with our long-held view that... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May 2024) Producer prices picked up for the first time in eight months and consumer price inflation held steady in May. We expect inflation to rebound in the coming months. But due to persistent overcapacity... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Is it too late for China’s tech stocks to join the party? We think that China’s “tech” equities could resume their rally, but that they’re unlikely to see anything like the gains their developed market peers have. 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (May 2024) The rise in inflation in Brazil to 3.9% y/y in May and, more importantly, the re-acceleration in underlying core services inflation means we no longer expect a rate cut at the Copom meeting next week... 11th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2024) Net capital inflows into EMs have climbed back into positive territory in recent weeks, driven by a sharp rise in foreign investors’ purchases of Turkish government debt. This strength could continue... 11th June 2024 · 2 mins read
