Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (April 2024) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.7% y/y last month and, more importantly, the sharp decline in underlying services inflation suggests that, despite the hawkish language in the Copom statement on... 10th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade to gradually recover this year Although the recent weakness in exports from China suggest that a sharp rebound in global goods trade probably isn’t on the cards, we still expect global trade to rise this year after a very weak 2023... 10th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The floods in southern Brazil: the economic impact The scale of the economic impact of the floods that have affected much of the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul will depend on how long it takes for the waters to recede and for reconstruction... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: excess savings an upside growth and inflation risk Private sector savings surged in Israel during the pandemic and jumped again last year amid the war in Gaza. We estimate that those built up due to the war are equivalent to around 3.0% of GDP and... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (May) Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold as expected at 5.75% today and we don’t expect any change for some time. Still, there is now a growing possibility of an interest rate cut... 9th May 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE ups the ante with OPEC, review of April’s PMIs The UAE has raised its oil production capacity even further in a sign that it wants to raise actual output. But with rumours growing that OPEC+ may extend its current low oil output quotas beyond June... 9th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Stubborn services inflation could slow rate cuts further The persistent strength in core services inflation in some EMs outside Asia raises the chances that central banks cut interest rates by less than the consensus expects this year, not least because it... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update How can South Africa tackle its public debt problem? The South African government has turned to fiscal austerity in an effort to stabilise the public debt ratio and to keep investors on board, but this is likely to become harder to do post-election... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Economic implications of the heatwave Extreme heat across parts of India could be particularly damaging to the agriculture sector through both a drop in crop yields and a fall in labour productivity. But industry and services aren’t... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 33.3% y/y in March to 32.5% y/y in April and we think that inflation will continue to ease over the rest of this year and into 2025. That said, while... 9th May 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Apr. 2024) Export values returned to growth last month after contracting in March, but this was mainly due to a lower base for comparison. Export volumes were little changed in April following a pullback in the... 9th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (May 2024) The Brazilian central bank’s decision to cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 10.50% (rather than opt for another 50bp step) and drop its forward guidance confirm that most of the rate cuts in this easing... 8th May 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s export success also due to weakness at home China’s leadership argues that the country’s export success in industries like auto production is a reflection of its technological strength. It understandably doesn’t want to focus on another factor... 8th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: fiscal concerns return to the spotlight The Mexican government’s pre-election spending spree means that the next administration will have its work cut out to put the country’s public finances back onto a stable footing. Claudia Sheinbaum... 8th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia can stick with its loose fiscal stance (for now) Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widened further at the start of this year and, for now at least, the government seems comfortable with maintaining the loose fiscal stance and issuing more debt. If oil... 7th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA growth, Nigeria petrol subsidy, Kenya floods South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for April released this week added to the evidence that growth will pick up over the coming quarters. But stronger growth is coming too late to help the ANC’s election... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read