Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE easing cycles shifting down a gear

The Hungarian central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller interest rate cut at its meeting this week fits into a broader theme that policymakers in parts of the EM world are moving towards a slower...

21st June 2024 · 8 mins read

Global Markets Update

Risk premia on Latin American assets may rise further

Latin American assets have generally underperformed those elsewhere of late, in part driven by rising risk premia on the region’s assets. We think these risk premia may rise further over the coming...

21st June 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Ukraine: a close look at external financing and debt relief

The G7 loan to Ukraine announced last week and the narrowing window to approve a new debt relief package once the payment suspension with private creditors ends in August has shone the spotlight on...

20th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Life still left in the EM easing cycle

The outcomes of the EM central bank meetings over the past 48 hours or so underscore the point that, while the EM monetary easing cycle is likely to continue over the coming quarters, it will no...

20th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

Policy easing to begin soon

We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to...

20th June 2024 · 28 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Lebanon on the brink, Hajj underway, Morocco rates

Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have ratcheted up in recent weeks and now threatens to draw Lebanon directly into the war. The economy is already in the midst of one of the worst crises on...

20th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2024)

After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the...

20th June 2024 · 1 min read

India Economic Outlook

Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins

Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s...

20th June 2024 · 16 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Indonesia Policy Rate (June 2024)

Bank Indonesia today left interest rates unchanged (at 6.25%), but hinted at possible rate cuts later in the year, provided that the rupiah stabilises against the US dollar. The central bank’s dovish...

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (June 2024)

The Brazilian central bank kept the Selic rate unchanged at 10.50% and with the headline inflation rate set to rise further in the coming months, we see no room for a resumption of the easing cycle...

19th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

EDP won’t heal CEE’s fiscal fragilities

The European Commission’s recommendation to open the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia for breaching the EU’s fiscal rules won’t force a drastic change in...

19th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Chile: room for interest rate cuts this year is narrowing

The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today alongside the communications to yesterday’s policy meeting suggest that the easing cycle over the next few quarters will be stop-start...

19th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (May.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 5.2% y/y in May and, while still some way off the 4.5% mid-point of the SARB’s target range, the formation of a government of national unity...

19th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank to cut its base rate by a smaller 25bp today, to 7.00%, were fairly hawkish and support our view that the base rate will only...

18th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

GDP growth pick-up on a fragile footing

Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the...

18th June 2024 · 20 mins read