Africa Economic Outlook

Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal...

27th June 2024 · 19 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its main policy rate on hold again today, at 50.00%, was widely expected, and the continued hawkish communications support our view that...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional growth strengthened at the end of Q2, with our regional-weighted measure of sentiment...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Global Markets Outlook – Where next for equities, bonds and FX?

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Will hype around AI continue to fuel a US stock market rally? How are elections and monetary policy shaping the path for bond yields?

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (June 2024)

The slightly lower-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure, of 4.1% y/y, for the first half of June won’t change the picture that the central bank’s easing cycle is over – for this year at least.

26th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Morocco Interest Rate Announcement (June 2024)

Morocco’s central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) announced this afternoon that it has cut its key policy interest rate by 25bp, to 2.75%. We expect that the Bank will continue to tread cautiously, as the...

25th June 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economic Outlook

Manufacturing boom to shore up growth a while longer

China’s economy is on course to expand by 5.5% this year, buoyed by policy support and strong exports. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook.

25th June 2024 · 15 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (June 2024)

Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

Asia Chart Pack

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our Emerging Asia Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most central banks in Emerging Asia have left policy rates unchanged since...

25th June 2024 · 0 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty

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Are signs of recovery sustainable? Is inflation receding enough for more central banks to join the global easing cycle?

Capital Daily

We think much of the weakness in EM FX has run its course

Nearly all major emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen against the US dollar so far this year, but we think the downside for most of these currencies is limited from here.

24th June 2024 · 3 mins read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: Growth slows but near-term prospects still good

Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic growth weakened in May on the back of a fall in services activity. Industry also slowed, following months of outperformance. We doubt this marks the...

24th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (May)

The Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag with retail sales bouncing back, while industry suffered a renewed contraction. With domestic demand likely to stay strong over the coming months, we...

24th June 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

PBOC: Don’t worry about the weakness of credit

Governor Pan Gongsheng’s comments about PBOC bond buying and about changes to the monetary policy framework caught the headlines this week. But it was what he said about weak credit growth that caught...

21st June 2024 · 6 mins read