Latin America Economics Update

Colombia: public finance concerns here to stay

The recently-published fiscal plans of Colombia’s government seem to have alleviated some near-term fiscal concerns, but we think the medium-term budget and debt projections are based on rosy...

2nd July 2024 · 5 mins read

Asset Allocation Outlook

We think the future remains bright for US equities

We continue to expect equities to outperform most other assets through the end of next year, as the hype around AI builds and lower inflation facilitates more monetary easing in some places than...

1st July 2024 · 28 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Asia continuing to lead EM manufacturing PMIs higher

The EM manufacturing PMI rose to a three-year high in June, driven by improvements in the surveys in much of Asia which have continued to benefit from strong export demand. Manufacturing recoveries...

1st July 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia and the possible implications of MbS as king

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) ultimate succession to become king is inevitable and a formality. Having been the de-facto leader of the Kingdom for several years it may not...

1st July 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained weak in June but improving electricity supply conditions and reduced political uncertainty should support a modest pick-up in activity. That said, the economy...

1st July 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China PMIs (Jun. 2024)

The PMIs for June suggest that China’s economy lost some momentum last month. But the manufacturing surveys may have been weighed down by negative sentiment effects due to recent tariff announcements...

1st July 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Consumption support still falling short

New government guidelines on how to create "new consumption scenarios" are still largely focused on supply-side reform, while little is being done to address demand weakness. Alongside a ramp-up in...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Weak Korean activity data, dovish BSP, hawkish BoT

The latest monthly activity data for Korea suggest that the economy weakened again last month and that GDP will have contracted in the second quarter of the year. In addition, while the central bank...

28th June 2024 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Unpacking the further slump in FDI

The further slump in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India in Q1 seems in large part a reflection of higher global interest rates. One implication therefore is that the slump will...

28th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

The US election and EMs

Under a second Trump administration, the imposition of large tariffs on China would hurts its economy but could speed up investment in manufacturing capacity elsewhere. However, a broader global...

28th June 2024 · 7 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Jun. 24)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy has regained some momentum in recent quarters and should continue to do relatively...

28th June 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

Mexico’s central bank left rates unchanged at 11.00% today, but there was a surprising dovish shift in the Board’s communications – despite the post-election fall in the peso. A small reduction in the...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt blackouts, Morocco rate cut, Iran election

Gas shortages in Egypt have led to blackouts and hotter summers are likely to raise demand for energy in the future. Absent further large gas finds, Egypt’s time as a natural gas net exporter is...

27th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

The Brazilian real at 30

Monday marks the 30th anniversary of the introduction of Brazil’s currency, the real, as part of a stabilisation plan (the Plano Real) which successfully tamed runaway inflation. For other EMs facing...

27th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

The decision by the Czech National Bank to deliver another 50bp cut to its policy rate today, to 4.75%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). That said, the post-meeting...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read