Africa Rapid Response South Africa Interest Rate Announcement (May) The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% was never in doubt. Governor Kganyago said as little about the election as was possible, but the MPC will be... 30th May 2024 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Change in policy stance looks imminent The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will almost certainly keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on Friday, 7th June. But we think that the committee will lay the... 30th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in May and our regional-weighted measure edged down slightly. Even so, that still leaves... 30th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: bond sell-off intensifies as the war effort steps up Sovereign bond yields in Russia have surged to multi-year highs this year as markets have increasingly questioned the trade-off between the war effort on the one hand and policymakers’ ability to... 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Sheinbaum presidency mean for Mexico? A victory for Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico’s election on Sunday is likely to see a continuation of Amlo’s generous social policies – which will also make Banxico’s fight against inflation harder. The... 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May 2024) Low oil output in the Gulf has constrained economic growth so far this year and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting will prove pivotal to the outlook over the rest of this year. Elsewhere in Middle East and... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024) Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus... 28th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2024) The decline in Brazilian inflation to 3.7% y/y in the first half of this month, coupled with signs of easing price pressures in some core categories, will provide relief to policymakers at the central... 28th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA elections: Can the ANC hold on? Kenya-US visit There’s less than a week to go until South Africa’s pivotal election and there remains significant uncertainty about the ANC’s likely vote share and, if it’s forced to go into coalition, who it will... 24th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is the Turkish lira turning a corner? Turkish policymakers have this week been extolling the lira’s recent stability. And the surge in foreign capital inflows after March’s rate hike suggests that there is a growing risk that the currency... 24th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s vote, Chile’s rate cut, Argentina’s trade surplus The dramatic improvement in Argentina’s trade balance has helped the central bank to rebuild its FX reserves, but this has only been made possible because domestic demand has collapsed. A weaker... 24th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1 2024) Nigeria’s GDP growth slowed to 3.0% y/y in Q1, driven by a halving in the oil sector growth rate, alongside high inflation and tighter monetary conditions continuing to drag on the non-oil economy. We... 24th May 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update What would an end to the property crisis look like? Resolution of China’s property crisis would result in residential sales being substantially higher than today. Sales could rise by a third. But we wouldn’t expect prices to increase by much, if at all... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Bank deposit exodus, chip self-sufficiency The recent slowdown in deposit growth does not signal a recovery in risk appetite among firms and households. On the contrary, it is being driven by their reluctance to borrow and their preference for... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low? The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US pact nears, MENA bond issuances, Iran election Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are nearing to a grand deal on security and the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear program would, if confirmed, swing the Kingdom back towards the US’s sphere of influence... 23rd May 2024 · 6 mins read