Asia Economics Focus

Will Indonesia breach its budget deficit limit?

The recent rise in public spending and fall in revenues has sent the Indonesian government’s budget deficit veering towards the constitutional 3% of GDP limit. And it’s unclear how the president-elect...

10th July 2024 · 9 mins read

Asia Economics Update

AI and friendshoring boosting (some) Asian exporters

Exports from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam have surged over the past 18 months, thanks to strong demand for AI-related products and friendshoring. In contrast, shipments from the rest of the region have...

10th July 2024 · 3 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun. 2024)

Consumer price inflation edged down in June. Producer price deflation eased but this was entirely due to base effects. We still expect a slight uptick in CPI inflation over the coming months but...

10th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Is Turkey losing external competitiveness?

Turkey’s economy has maintained strong external price competitiveness since the pandemic (mirrored by rapid export growth). But measures of competitiveness have shown a noticeable decline in the past...

9th July 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

Services export boom has an AI sting in the tail

Much of the strength of India’s external position over recent years can be explained by robust growth in its services exports, in particular its business process outsourcing (BPO) sector. The near...

9th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

Israel’s central bank (BoI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.50% as expected today and interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the time being while fiscal, inflation and geopolitical risks...

8th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

The hawks come out in their droves

Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central bank officials strengthen our view that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (potentially as large as...

5th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

Romania’s central bank (NBR) started its easing cycle at today’s meeting with a 25bp rate cut, to 6.75%. But with inflation and fiscal risks still high, this is likely to be a slow and gradual cycle...

5th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Indonesia puts tariffs on China, rebound in Vietnam

Indonesia has become the latest country in Asia to announce measures to stem the flow of cheap imports from China. But while the tariffs may help Indonesian producers maintain market share at home...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

China Economics Weekly

PBOC may struggle to tame the bond market

The PBOC will soon start borrowing government bonds, opening the door to sales aimed at arresting the decline in long-term yields, which the central bank sees as a growing financial stability risk...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of...

4th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (May)

The latest activity data suggest that Russia’s economy continued to motor along in May, driven by stronger growth in industry. The economy is clearly overheating and this continues to fuel inflation...

3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

The decision by Poland’s central bank (NBP) to leave its policy rate at 5.75% today came as no surprise and we doubt that policymakers will have scope to lower interest rates until the middle of next...

3rd July 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt needs to stick to frugality to ease debt fears

Egypt’s government faces a likely further rise in debt servicing costs over the coming year. But the good news is that the budget for the 2024/25 fiscal year (which started this week) reaffirmed the...

3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM growth: out of sync

One of the takeaways from our latest Emerging Markets Outlook is that the EM business cycle is unusually unsynchronised. We expect some convergence as the effects of the enormous macro shocks of...

3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read