China Rapid Response

China GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun. 2024)

Weaker-than-expected official GDP figures show that China’s economy lost momentum in Q2. But we doubt this marks the beginning of a renewed downturn just yet – a step up in fiscal stimulus and...

15th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria rate cuts, Kenya instability, Ghana inflation

Nigeria’s central bank governor this week hinted that rate cuts may soon be on the cards but there are still upside inflation risks on the horizon that could scupper those plans. Meanwhile, Kenyan...

12th July 2024 · 7 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

The surprise jump in headline consumer price inflation last month will be enough to convince any MPC members who may have been leaning toward rate cuts at the August policy meeting that conditions are...

12th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary fiscal tightening, June inflation re-cap

Hungary’s fiscal tightening measures announced this week are a step in the right direction, but we are sceptical that the deficit will come down far enough to put the public debt ratio onto a...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

PBOC narrows rate corridor, overcapacity worsens

The PBOC’s expanded open market operations effectively narrow the interest rate corridor for short-term interbank rates. This won’t have any immediate consequences for monetary conditions. But it does...

12th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korea: assessing the impact of the strike at Samsung

Even if the strike by workers at Samsung Electronics is brought to an end soon, it has served to highlight once again the inflexibility of Korea’s labour market and the poor state of industrial...

12th July 2024 · 7 mins read

China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.)

Both bank loan and broad credit growth hit a record low in June. While further fiscal loosening may provide some support to credit growth in the near-term, the continued weakness of the property...

12th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Kenya: sovereign default risks on the rise again

Recent protests in Kenya have dealt a heavy blow to President Ruto’s fiscal consolidation plans and, with the president dismissing the cabinet yesterday as he tries to cling on to power, it looks...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Budget and geopolitics in focus

The full Budget for FY24/25 - which will be unveiled on 23rd July - will provide an important indication of how much the BJP is willing to concede to its coalition partners. Meanwhile, developments...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (Jun. 2024)

Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in 15 months, with export volumes hitting record highs. We think exports will stay robust in the near term despite increased Western tariffs. Import volumes...

12th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2024)

Net capital inflows into EMs remained positive over the past month, largely reflecting continued strong inflows into EM bonds, particularly Turkey, while there were outflows post-election in Mexico...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi pension changes, Saudi and Egypt Q1 BoP data

The increase in Saudi Arabia statutory retirement age could increase the size of the labour force by 10% by 2040 and, in turn, lift potential GDP growth by as much as 1%-pt per annum. Meanwhile, Q1’s...

11th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi non-oil activity cooling

Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth is likely to pick up, and markedly so in 2025. But that will be driven by rising oil output. We think that activity in the non-oil economy will slow. Indeed, there are signs...

11th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The rise in Russian inflation to 8.6% y/y in June, alongside weekly figures suggesting that an even larger rise is possible in July, seals the deal on an interest rate hike later this month. We now...

10th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE inflation data less encouraging than it seems

At first sight, the latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) might seem to provide central banks reason for comfort. But a look under the surface paints a more worrying picture...

10th July 2024 · 4 mins read