India Economics Update RBI still on course for August rate cut The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but, notably, two of out of the six MPC members voted for a cut. With inflation likely to continue falling over the coming months, we... 7th June 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (June 2024) The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but, notably, two of out of the six MPC members voted for a cut. With inflation likely to continue falling over the coming months, we... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (May 2024) Export values rose y/y at the fastest pace since April 2023, with export volumes also picking up. We think exports will remain strong in the coming months, defying the expansion of Western tariffs... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth strengthening, inflation risks resurfacing Activity strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1 and we expect this to be sustained over the coming quarters, with GDP growth in most economies exceeding consensus expectations in 2024. This is... 6th June 2024 · 22 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE exceptionalism, Egypt reshuffle, Saudi mortgages The decision by OPEC+ to roll over oil production cuts until October will reduce economic growth in the Gulf this year, but the UAE has emerged a clear winner. Higher oil output there will lead to a... 6th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth robust in Q1 but disparities persist Aggregate EM GDP growth remained strong in Q1, though we still expect a slowdown later this year. At a regional level, Emerging Asia will lead the pack, however there are tentative signs that... 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) Russia’s economy appears to have had a slightly softer start to Q2, with industrial production and retail sales growth both slowing in April. Still, the latest indicators for May have remained strong... 5th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today and policymakers are likely to maintain fairly hawkish communications as inflation rebounds in the second half of the year. We... 5th June 2024 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What Modi 3.0 means for India's economy Narendra Modi will begin his third term as India’s Prime Minister with a weakened mandate and that will make the passage of contentious economic reforms more difficult. But he will still be able to... 4th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2024) The sharp pick-up in Brazil’s GDP growth to 0.8% q/q in Q1 is a temporary rebound from a weak patch in the second half of last year and doesn’t mark the start of a strong recovery. Still, the pace of... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (May ‘24) May’s batch of PMIs showed that private non-oil sectors have remained a point of strength in the Gulf economies at the mid-point of Q2 and this is likely to remain the case over the rest of this year... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1 2024) South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in the first quarter of the year and the latest evidence suggests that fragility has continued into Q2. A less acute drag from loadshedding should support... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Exports to remain a near-term prop to growth Global demand is giving a bigger boost to China’s economy than we had anticipated this year and foreign tariffs will make little difference to aggregate export performance in the near term. We now... 4th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Why is wage growth in Korea so weak? The recent weakness of wage growth in Korea seems at odds with the country’s low unemployment rate. But a closer look at the data suggests that the unemployment rate is overstating the health of the... 4th June 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing performance strong but uneven The EM manufacturing PMI remained at a three-year high in May but the picture is becoming increasingly nuanced at a country level. Meanwhile, the PMIs also showed price pressures rose again last month... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Answering your questions on Mexico’s election Our initial response to Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in Mexico’s presidential election can be found here. We also held a Drop-in earlier today. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed... 3rd June 2024 · 7 mins read