Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russia’s economy lost a bit of steam in June, but it still looks like GDP growth over Q2 as a whole was very strong, with growth tracking at 4.5-5.0% y/y. 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We are optimistic about EM sovereign bonds’ returns Our view on emerging market local-currency government bonds is broadly upbeat for the next year or so. We think returns will be largest, in common-currency terms, in Emerging Asia. 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Weak demand holding back S. Africa’s economy The fading drag from load-shedding was widely expected to allow a recovery in South Africa’s economy this year, but this hasn’t materialised. We think that weak demand is to blame, itself a symptom of... 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 ‘24 Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of GDP showed that that the economy grew by a solid 1.4% q/q in Q2 and, while non-oil activity is likely to slow over the second half of this year, it will be more than... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jul. 2024) The PMIs for July suggest that China’s economy weakened further last month, as domestic weakness continues to weigh on the economy. But the government now seems intent on ramping up policy support... 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth faltering as domestic weakness persists Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy has lost some steam recently with weak domestic demand weighing on activity. Alongside recent rate cuts, policymakers have signalled that fiscal... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe generally fell in July, and our regional-weighted measure hit a five-month low, providing additional evidence... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q2) The weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP data out of Czechia and Hungary show that weak external demand is still acting as a constraint on the speed of recoveries in Central Europe. While we expect growth to... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Jul. 2024) The readout of the Politburo’s latest triannual meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It was dovish in tone and adds to recent evidence that the leadership believes more... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Is EM central bank independence under threat? Donald Trump’s comments on the Fed have brought the issue of central bank independence into the spotlight. This is not just a concern in the US but an issue that is rearing its head in a number of EMs... 29th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2024) Our MENA Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output... 29th July 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response Further easing on the cards The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has... 29th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The macro impact of an Israel-Hezbollah conflict The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to... 29th July 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Monetary and fiscal policy turning more supportive Policymakers’ concerns about the near-term outlook have become much more visible over the past couple of weeks, with weak Q2 growth and poor stock market performance triggering rate cuts and talk of... 26th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up to the plate with a 200bp hike to its key policy rate today, to 18.00%, in response to the overheating economy and a renewed surge in inflation. While we think... 26th July 2024 · 2 mins read
