Emerging Europe Economics Update EDP won’t heal CEE’s fiscal fragilities The European Commission’s recommendation to open the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia for breaching the EU’s fiscal rules won’t force a drastic change in... 19th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: room for interest rate cuts this year is narrowing The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today alongside the communications to yesterday’s policy meeting suggest that the easing cycle over the next few quarters will be stop-start... 19th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 5.2% y/y in May and, while still some way off the 4.5% mid-point of the SARB’s target range, the formation of a government of national unity... 19th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank to cut its base rate by a smaller 25bp today, to 7.00%, were fairly hawkish and support our view that the base rate will only... 18th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook GDP growth pick-up on a fragile footing Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the... 18th June 2024 · 20 mins read
China Economics Focus What to expect at the Third Plenum The Third Plenum may conclude with a pledge of comprehensive reform in areas spanning the private sector, manufacturing, innovation, social security, economic management and more. That may excite hope... 18th June 2024 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea: growth to slow, inflation to fall, rates to be cut Korea’s economy rebounded strongly last quarter but there are already signs it is losing momentum, and we expect growth to struggle over the coming year. Export growth is likely to ease a little, but... 18th June 2024 · 10 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (May 2024) May’s activity data were a mixed bag with an uptick in retail sales and slowdown in industrial production partially reversing the recent trend of strength on the supply side and weaker demand. 17th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) The further rise in Russian in inflation to 8.3% y/y in May was stronger than expected, and means that an interest rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting in July now looks all but certain. While... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria food prices, Kenya budget, ANC-DA deal A surge in food prices in Nigeria this week presents a challenge to the optimistic tone the authorities are trying to strike on the inflation outlook. To contain these inflation risks for good, the... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EV tariffs, European election results, May inflation The EU’s new tariffs on EV imports from China announced this week could provide a boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe by pushing Chinese carmakers to set up more factories in the region... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Bank loan growth in China was the slowest on record in May, but accelerated government bond issuance helped broader credit growth edge up. Fiscal loosening should support further gains in the near... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Europe leaves the road open for China’s EV-makers China protested the European Commission’s imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles this week but, if the EU goes no further, China’s government is likely to see this as a... 14th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Morocco’s EVs to fuel auto boom, Aramco issuance The EU’s tariffs on EV imports from China may encourage Chinese firms to raise investments into Morocco, whose auto sector is growing rapidly on the back of expansion plans from both Chinese and... 13th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus FX scarcity: will the pain point ease? The authorities in several major emerging markets, including Egypt, Argentina and Nigeria, have taken important policy steps recently that may allow them to ease restrictions on access to foreign... 13th June 2024 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With economic activity strengthening across Emerging Europe and inflationary pressures... 13th June 2024 · 1 min read