Event Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty 1st July 2024, 9:00AM BST Are signs of recovery sustainable? Is inflation receding enough for more central banks to join the global easing cycle? Do upcoming elections pose a risk to the economic outlook? Our senior…
Capital Daily We think much of the weakness in EM FX has run its course Nearly all major emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen against the US dollar so far this year, but we think the downside for most of these currencies is limited from here. 24th June 2024 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth slows but near-term prospects still good Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic growth weakened in May on the back of a fall in services activity. Industry also slowed, following months of outperformance. We doubt this marks the... 24th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (May) The Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag with retail sales bouncing back, while industry suffered a renewed contraction. With domestic demand likely to stay strong over the coming months, we... 24th June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC: Don’t worry about the weakness of credit Governor Pan Gongsheng’s comments about PBOC bond buying and about changes to the monetary policy framework caught the headlines this week. But it was what he said about weak credit growth that caught... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GNU reform challenge, Kenya tax U-turn The government of national unity (GNU) formed by South Africa’s ANC and DA has led to a rally in local financial markets, but forming this unity government may prove to be the easy part. The necessary... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE easing cycles shifting down a gear The Hungarian central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller interest rate cut at its meeting this week fits into a broader theme that policymakers in parts of the EM world are moving towards a slower... 21st June 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Risk premia on Latin American assets may rise further Latin American assets have generally underperformed those elsewhere of late, in part driven by rising risk premia on the region’s assets. We think these risk premia may rise further over the coming... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: a close look at external financing and debt relief The G7 loan to Ukraine announced last week and the narrowing window to approve a new debt relief package once the payment suspension with private creditors ends in August has shone the spotlight on... 20th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Life still left in the EM easing cycle The outcomes of the EM central bank meetings over the past 48 hours or so underscore the point that, while the EM monetary easing cycle is likely to continue over the coming quarters, it will no... 20th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to begin soon We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon on the brink, Hajj underway, Morocco rates Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have ratcheted up in recent weeks and now threatens to draw Lebanon directly into the war. The economy is already in the midst of one of the worst crises on... 20th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2024) After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the... 20th June 2024 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s... 20th June 2024 · 16 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Policy Rate (June 2024) Bank Indonesia today left interest rates unchanged (at 6.25%), but hinted at possible rate cuts later in the year, provided that the rupiah stabilises against the US dollar. The central bank’s dovish... 20th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (June 2024) The Brazilian central bank kept the Selic rate unchanged at 10.50% and with the headline inflation rate set to rise further in the coming months, we see no room for a resumption of the easing cycle... 19th June 2024 · 2 mins read