FX Markets Update What to make of the latest moves in EM currencies Heightened US recession worries have helped unwound some of the stretched positions in high-carry EM currencies, resulting in their exchange rates moving closer to their “fair values” (judging by our... 9th August 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul. 2024) Consumer price inflation ticked up in July, but this was entirely due to a weather-related rise in food price inflation. Producer price deflation was unchanged. While a ramp-up in fiscal spending... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly US growth worries, BSP’s close call, Bangladesh turmoil Our US team believe that while a soft landing for the US economy is still the most likely outcome, the risk of a hard landing has risen. Vietnam stands out as the most vulnerable country in Asia to a... 9th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) Mexico’s central bank opted to reduce its policy rate by 25bp, to 10.75%, at today’s meeting and the statement generally retained the moderately dovish tone from the last one. We think further rate... 8th August 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC to remain timid despite renminbi turnaround The recent batch of weaker-than-expected US data and resulting global market fallout hasn’t significantly altered China’s economic outlook. While US recession risks have risen somewhat, a soft landing... 8th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The global market turmoil and the impact on MENA Financial markets in the Middle East weren’t spared from the global sell-off earlier in the week. There could be a macro impact on the Gulf economies through the fall in oil prices, either via lower... 8th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.6% y/y in July, alongside the weakness in the peso means that Banxico’s interest rate decision later today will be a very close call between a cut... 8th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation slowed from 27.5% y/y in June to 25.7% y/y in July, its lowest rate since December 2022. And this came in spite of recent hikes to the prices of baladi bread and fuel. We... 8th August 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI to ease policy by year-end The recent market turmoil didn’t move the needle for the MPC today: it continued to strike a hawkish tone as the majority of members voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But with inflation... 8th August 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Aug. 2024) The recent market turmoil didn’t move the needle for the MPC today: it continued to strike a hawkish tone as the majority of members voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But with inflation... 8th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SSA protests will worsen public finance strains Protests that originated in Kenya have spread to neighbouring Uganda and as far afield as Nigeria. The common theme of a weak economic backdrop, endemic corruption and fiscal fears means the region is... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jul. 2024) Growth in export values slowed last month, but this was mainly due to lower export prices. Export volumes remained near record highs. We expect outbound shipments to stay strong for a while, not least... 7th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE’s to remain the Gulf’s star economy The UAE’s economy has been the strongest performer in the Gulf over the past year or so and a robust non-oil sector should help the UAE retain its crown as the fastest growing economy in the region. 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bangladesh: the economic fallout from the unrest The outbreak of political violence and the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has rocked Bangladesh today. But provided that peace and stability is restored relatively soon, the... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
