China Economics Weekly

Not a balance sheet recession, yet

Weak credit data has stoked fears of a balance sheet recession in China. While the economy is still far from reaching that point, the private sector will eventually start to cut down on its borrowing...

16th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Mpox, SA’s geopolitical pivot

This week, the WHO declared mpox a global public health emergency amidst a surge in cases in parts of Africa. Beyond the human tragedy, there may be disruption to economic activity in the region, with...

16th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Thailand’s truce breaks down, Asia’s central banks start to shift stance

Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the third member of her family to serve as Thailand’s prime minister. Both her father and her aunt then went into exile. Events over the past two weeks will give investors no...

16th August 2024 · 9 mins read

India Economics Weekly

SEBI in Hindenburg’s crosshairs, Sino-Indian relations

The Adani Group/Hindenburg Research saga took a new twist this week as the US short-seller alleged that India's markets regulator, SEBI, had a major conflict of interests in investigating the...

16th August 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Focus

How to fix China’s property destocking scheme

The property support measures included in yesterday’s stimulus announcement won’t be enough to drive a turnaround in the housing market. In a detailed analysis of the government’s property destocking...

16th August 2024 · 18 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Colombia GDP (Q2 2024)

The Colombian economy isn’t nearly as weak as the meagre 0.1% q/q rise in headline GDP in Q2 would suggest; there was a large drag from net trade while domestic demand remained very strong. The strong...

15th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul. '24)

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 33.4% in July, the first time it had slowed in 18 months, as the passthrough from previous naira falls has finally started to faded. With inflation having...

15th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Structural boost outweighing cyclical drag on exports

EM goods export growth has accelerated over the past year despite a slowdown in economic growth in DMs. We think this is being driven by three structural factors: Chinese overcapacity, the AI...

15th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul. ‘24)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 1.5% y/y in July, but we expect that the headline rate will ease back over the remainder of this year and potentially fall back below 1% y/y by...

15th August 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Activity & Spending (Jul. 2024)

After slowing in Q2, economic momentum appears to have stabilised somewhat last month, with a pick-up in consumer spending and services activity largely offsetting a slowdown in investment and...

15th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa experiencing a two speed recovery

South African economy looks to have recorded a pick-up in growth in Q2, but the recovery is operating at two speeds with retail sales and manufacturing on the up, while the mining sector remains a...

14th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Jordan’s tourism sector hit hard by spillovers of war

Jordan’s economy has been among the hardest hit from the indirect spillovers of the war in Gaza. While severe balance of payments of strains are likely to be avoided, GDP growth will suffer as the key...

14th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland GDP (Q2 2024)

The larger-than-expected pick-up in Polish GDP growth in Q2, to 1.5% q/q (from 0.8% in Q1), suggests that the risks to our forecast for GDP to expand by 3% over the year as a whole are now tilted to...

14th August 2024 · 2 mins read

India Economics Update

What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing

Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs...

13th August 2024 · 5 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.)

Broad credit growth ticked up in July, while bank loan growth only slowed a touch. (See Chart 1.) We expect a continued acceleration in government bond issuance to support a further expansion of...

13th August 2024 · 2 mins read