EM Valuations Monitor Relative resilience of EM equity valuations could fade We don’t think the valuations of emerging market equities will continue to hold up better than those in developed markets if, as we expect, the global economy slips into recession. 21st October 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Lira-isation” policies are no cure for Turkey’s problems Policymakers in Turkey have doubled down on their new economic model of “lira-isation” by pursuing more extreme de-dollarisation policies in recent months. These appear to be having an impact in terms... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Rates to stay high for a long while yet EM tightening cycles have continued apace but, having started raising rates much earlier than their DM (and Asian) peers, some central banks in Latin America (Brazil, Chile) and Emerging Europe (Czech... 19th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Inflation and interest rates peaking Latin America is running into a growing set of headwinds, from the global recession to lower commodity prices to tight policy at home. We expect recessions in Chile and Argentina, and our growth... 19th October 2022 · 26 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EM Asian equities may drop further We think benchmark equity indices in Taiwan, Korea and India will fall a bit further over the remainder of this year and into 2023, as the global economy slips into a recession. 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Inflation & external pressures force the MNB’s hand Developments this week underscore that Hungary is facing much stronger inflation and external pressures than its regional peers. These forced the central bank (MNB) to tighten monetary policy further... 14th October 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly A bigger slice of Apple pie Apple’s decision to shift some of its manufacturing into India – and out of China – is an example of how the global economy is “fracturing” into US- and China-aligned blocs: the topic of our 2022... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region heading for recession Emerging European economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost... 13th October 2022 · 29 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM could be the next Sri Lanka? One question that we frequently get asked is which EM could be the next Sri Lanka. While there are several candidates, Tunisia concerns us most. The good news for the rest of the world is that the... 13th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs have picked up over the past month against the backdrop of a strong US dollar. We think that emerging economies will continue to find it difficult to attract foreign capital... 11th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB: treading its own path The bi-annual Monetary Policy Review released this week by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) bolsters our view that the tightening cycle, while slow to start, is likely to be one of the most... 7th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How worrying is the fall in EMs’ FX reserves? While large-scale intervention to stem currency weakness has led to falls in central banks’ foreign exchange reserves, FX reserve coverage is only really low in a handful of EMs including Egypt... 6th October 2022 · 4 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Monetary policy may turn tailwind for EM sovereign bonds With monetary tightening cycles approaching their ends in many emerging markets (EMs), we think local-currency (LC) sovereign bond yields will, in general, be much lower in a couple of years than they... 4th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry sinks further The batch of manufacturing PMIs for September point to further weakness in EM industry at the end of Q3. And the backdrop of slowing growth at home and a global economy heading for recession will keep... 3rd October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Impact of the global energy price shock across EMs The surge in energy prices this year (particularly gas) will have the biggest impact on Central and Eastern Europe and push economies there into recession. There will be an impact in the rest of the... 29th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Policymakers on alert as EM currencies tumble The ramping up of the US Fed’s hawkish rhetoric has turbocharged the dollar’s appreciation against EM currencies, with most falling by 2-6% against the greenback since the start of the month... 27th September 2022 · 8 mins read
