Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Jul.)

The weaker-than-expected batch of Polish activity figures for July is more likely to be a blip than the start of a soft patch. We remain comfortable with our view that Poland’s economy will expand by...

22nd August 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

Has the dam finally broken for Asian FX?

We think Asian currencies will generally continue to rise against the US dollar over time, albeit perhaps not quite as quickly as they have lately.

21st August 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2024)

Capital flows into EMs reversed course during the bout of market turmoil earlier this month. But the decline was no larger than that seen in other risk-off periods this year and inflows have since...

21st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul' 24)

The larger-than-expected decline in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 4.6% y/y, in July strengthens the case for the SARB to start its easing cycle with a 25bp cut to 8.00% at its next...

21st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

BI hints at rate cuts in Q4

Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut before the end of the year. We expect the central bank...

21st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Slowing underlying inflation suggests SARB can cut

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) new “supercore” inflation measure adds yet another piece of evidence that price pressures are being brought under control. We think the SARB should now be...

20th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Savings problem to weigh on Colombia’s prospects

The prevailing view that, over the medium term, Colombia will maintain its position as Latin America’s fastest-growing major economy looks overly optimistic in light of the collapse in its savings and...

20th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

The Turkish central bank (CBRT) left its main policy rate unchanged again today, at 50.00%, and offered little sign that it will soon start an easing cycle. While most other analysts expect monetary...

20th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s credit splurge a slow-burning risk

The rapid expansion of commercial bank lending in Saudi Arabia has raised the risk of an increase in non-performing loans and heightened the exposure of the banking sector to both the real estate...

20th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

Global Drop-In: Towards 2025 – Risks to the global economic and market outlook

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After a summer of extraordinary economic, market and political developments, what can investors expect through the end of 2024?

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What impact will the recent wave of EM protests have?

The protests that have swept several EMs in recent weeks are likely to have a longer-lasting economic impact in countries with weak balance sheets and/or where they lead to a major shift in policy. To...

20th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Mixed outlook for Brazilian financial assets

Brazilian assets have generally underperformed other EMs so far this year, but measures of risk premia still appear low to us, especially given concerns over public finances. While bonds may offer...

20th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

War in Gaza still holding Israel’s economy back

Israel’s economy slowed more than expected in Q2 as weak investment and supply constraints continued to hold back activity. A ceasefire to halt the conflict in Gaza would clearly be positive for the...

19th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Polish outperformance

The standout feature of the data released in the region this week was the strength of Polish GDP in Q2 – the economy is now comfortably outperforming its peers in the region. The most plausible...

16th August 2024 · 7 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Not a balance sheet recession, yet

Weak credit data has stoked fears of a balance sheet recession in China. While the economy is still far from reaching that point, the private sector will eventually start to cut down on its borrowing...

16th August 2024 · 6 mins read