Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM inflation has passed the peak Having surged for the best part of two years, EM inflation appears to have passed the peak in this cycle. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation dropped from 7.8% y/y in September to 7.4% y/y in... 23rd November 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Troubles are probably not over for Brazil’s markets The post-election honeymoon period for Brazil’s financial markets has proven short-lived, and we suspect that the country’s equities, bonds, and currency will remain under pressure in coming months. 21st November 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Black Sea grain deal extension reduces risks to EMs Russia’s agreement to extend the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine should help to keep a lid on wheat and corn prices over the coming months, reducing upward pressure on inflation in the emerging... 21st November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: a fork in the road for the economy Voters in Turkey head to the polls in 2023 and if the ruling People’s Alliance and President Erdogan cling on to power, the authorities are likely to double down on their “new economic model”, raising... 21st November 2022 · 40 mins read
FX Markets Update High carry may not offer much support to EM currencies High carry emerging market (EM) currencies have generally fared better than their low carry counterparts over recent months, but we doubt this will continue. We think currencies in EM Asia will fare... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update EM sovereign bond yields may be nearing their peak Having increased sharply throughout the year, we think that emerging market local currency sovereign bond yields will probably only increase by a little more in the first half of next year, despite a... 18th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: US-China relations, regional elections and more 1669276800 November's briefing on Asia’s big macro and market stories included discussion of US-China relations in the wake of the Xi-Biden meeting as well as the economic impact of Beijing’s looser zero-COVI
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Higher interest rates exposing private sector debt risks Higher interest rates and larger private sector debt burdens mean that debt interest service ratios could rise to levels last seen in the 1990s in many EMs next year. This is unlikely to be a major... 17th November 2022 · 18 mins read
Capital Daily We think CEE currencies have further to fall than most We think that the currencies of Central and Eastern Europe economies will weaken by more than most over the coming quarters, even if we assume that last night’s flashpoint in the war in Ukraine doesn... 16th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows into EM financial markets have risen sharply so far this month, as investor risk appetite has improved. But with the global economy set to enter recession, we aren’t convinced... 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s bad loans, inflation outlook brightening Brazil’s president-elect Lula sent local financial markets into a tailspin late this week after he stressed the need for higher spending, reinforcing our concerns that the country’s public debt... 11th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: a fiscal health check The dramatic improvement in EM public finances since the height of the pandemic is starting to run out of steam. And we think that fiscal dynamics are likely to get worse next year in parts of Central... 11th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
