Asia Economics Update Korea: demographic drag worsening Figures released today highlight the dreadful demographic outlook facing Korea, with the population (excluding migrants) falling for a third year in a row. Poor demographics are the key reason why we... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs and the war: one year on The war in Ukraine, which marks its one year anniversary on Friday, has had a profound impact on the emerging world. Ukraine’s economy has collapsed, while Russia’s has contracted too even though the... 22nd February 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s public finances under increasing strain Russia’s budget deficit has widened sharply in recent months and is likely to remain under pressure amid lower oil prices and rising military spending. The government is unlikely to experience severe... 21st February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The lessons from EM ‘turnaround’ elections Nigeria’s presidential election this weekend could be one of several EM elections this year (including Turkey and Argentina) that see opposition victories and a turn away from unorthodox policymaking... 21st February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2022) The 2.1% contraction in Russian GDP in 2022 was smaller than expected and is consistent with an expansion in Q4, providing further evidence to suggest that the economy stabilised after the initial hit... 20th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI sticks to aggressive tightening, cycle still not over The Bank of Israel (BoI) hiked interest rates by another 50bp, to 4.25%, today and while it continued to point to signs of slower growth, it sounded more concerned about the strength of inflation than... 20th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM investment: weak outlook and clear divergence EM investment surged far above pre-pandemic levels last year, but there was a clear divergence across countries and we think investment growth will slow in 2023. One worrying development is that... 20th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the Mexican peso’s outperformance will reverse soon While it has outperformed nearly all major currencies over the past couple of years, we think the Mexican peso will fall sharply against the dollar if, as we expect, the US economy weakens later this... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect equities in Brazil to continue to struggle We expect MSCI’s Brazil Index to drop over the next couple of quarters in local-currency terms, before it begins to recover towards the end of this year. 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Recessions arrive in CEE, external deficits narrowing The big picture from the Q4 GDP data this week was that, despite some divergence within the region, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as a whole had a relatively poor end to 2022. We expect CEE... 17th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How worrying is the renewed rise in EM core inflation? EM core inflation jumped to its highest rate in almost two decades in January. That can partly be pinned on China, where core inflation has risen from a very low rate. In most other EMs, core... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Africa Drop-In: Nigeria’s crunch presidential election 1677160800 Nigerians go to the polls on 25th February for general elections which could put the country on a very different path.
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks: earlier to hike, earlier to cut The raft of EM central bank meetings over the past couple of weeks reinforces the view that monetary tightening cycles have now drawn to a close or are very close to doing so, several months earlier... 10th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows have been soft this year in spite of the improvement in the economic outlook for EMs and the weaker dollar. And the very latest data suggest that capital has flowed out of EMs... 9th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily EM LC bond yields will probably fall a bit further by end-2023 We think emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) sovereign bond yields will generally fall a bit further by end-2023. 8th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s earthquakes The recent earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria are a human tragedy and foremost in everyone’s minds. Nonetheless, the financial markets will also need to bear in mind the economic cost and, to the... 7th February 2023 · 4 mins read
