Global Markets Update We think the struggles for equities in India will resume We think MSCI’s India Index will fall over the next couple of quarters in local-currency terms, amid subdued domestic economic activity and a general deterioration in investors’ appetite for “risky”... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: rates on hold, but scope for cuts this year The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold as expected today, at 6.75%, and we don’t think policymakers will rule out further rate hikes just yet (today’s statement gave... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM financial risks have eased but not evaporated Financial risks across the emerging world have eased since the start of the year but, with the Fed’s Jerome Powell all but confirming a higher peak for US rates, there is still scope for EMs with weak... 8th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM slowdowns and NPLs: lessons from the past Non-performing loan (NPL) ratios have risen by as much as 4-5%-pts during non-banking crisis downturns in EMs in the past. This time around, there are reasons to think that the increase will be... 6th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Q4 may mark the trough, only weak recovery ahead There are tentative signs in recent data that the slump in Asian goods exports may be nearing an end and that, after a dreadful performance at the end of 2022, GDP in much of the region may have... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Assessing the inflation threat from EM labour markets Labour markets look very tight in Central Europe and a handful of other EMs (particularly in Latin America), and we think that wage growth is unlikely to fall far enough in these countries to bring... 2nd March 2023 · 19 mins read
FX Markets Update The Colombian peso looks poised for a rebound As political risks appear to be largely discounted by investors, we expect the Colombian peso to outperform other major EM currencies over the next couple of years. In view of the wider interest we... 2nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We doubt the shekel will continue to underperform The Israeli shekel has been amongst the worst performing currencies over the past month amid a rise in risk premia in Israel. We think it may remain under pressure against the US dollar over the... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: industrial downturn bottoming out The manufacturing PMIs for February remained very weak in most EMs, but they did at least provide signs that industry across much of the emerging world has fared better so far this year than it did in... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The manufacturing PMIs for February suggest that industrial sectors in Central and Eastern Europe are continuing to struggle, but there are tentative signs that the region may now be past the worst of... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Rocky road may still be ahead for EM assets We think even if some of the recent headwinds that have buffeted emerging market (EM) assets fade, a slowdown in global growth might keep them under pressure in the near term. 28th February 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2022) Turkey’s economy expanded by 0.9% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q4, but growth remained unbalanced as it was driven largely by private consumption while net trade provided a sizable drag. We think growth will... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s economy one year on, Israel’s judicial reform Russia's war in Ukraine marks its one year anniversary this week and one of the more surprising macroeconomic developments during this time has been the resilience of Russia's economy, which... 24th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia’s infrastructure budget, Korea’s hawkish hold Malaysia today announced a modest tightening of fiscal policy for 2023, but the most eye-catching element of the budget was a significant (and welcome) increase in infrastructure spending. Global Drop... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Poland’s Swiss franc mortgage problem Last week’s European Court of Justice (ECJ) opinion on Poland’s Swiss franc mortgage dispute dealt yet another blow to Poland’s banking sector and will expose those banks with large FX loan portfolios... 23rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
