Emerging Markets Economics Update How worrying is the fall in EMs’ FX reserves? While large-scale intervention to stem currency weakness has led to falls in central banks’ foreign exchange reserves, FX reserve coverage is only really low in a handful of EMs including Egypt... 6th October 2022 · 4 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Monetary policy may turn tailwind for EM sovereign bonds With monetary tightening cycles approaching their ends in many emerging markets (EMs), we think local-currency (LC) sovereign bond yields will, in general, be much lower in a couple of years than they... 4th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry sinks further The batch of manufacturing PMIs for September point to further weakness in EM industry at the end of Q3. And the backdrop of slowing growth at home and a global economy heading for recession will keep... 3rd October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Impact of the global energy price shock across EMs The surge in energy prices this year (particularly gas) will have the biggest impact on Central and Eastern Europe and push economies there into recession. There will be an impact in the rest of the... 29th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Policymakers on alert as EM currencies tumble The ramping up of the US Fed’s hawkish rhetoric has turbocharged the dollar’s appreciation against EM currencies, with most falling by 2-6% against the greenback since the start of the month... 27th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital inflows into EMs have dropped sharply over the past few weeks as the US dollar has been on a tear. External financing is likely to remain challenging in this environment, posing a threat to... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: counting the cost of a strong dollar The strong dollar environment is particularly worrying for those EMs with large dollar debts, including parts of Latin America, Turkey and many frontier markets. But it’s also a concern for countries... 20th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Glimmers of hope for swifter debt restructurings? Shifts in China’s approach in debt talks with Zambia and planned changes to the Common Framework, such as establishing firm timelines, will go some way to smoothing the debt restructuring process for... 14th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE economies hardest hit by Europe’s energy crisis In this Update, we analyse the impact of surging energy prices in Europe and show that the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies are the most vulnerable. The share of household disposable... 12th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s central bank brings hiking cycle to an end The National Bank of Poland (NBP) slowed down the pace of its tightening cycle again today with a 25bp rate hike to 6.75%. There was no new guidance in the communications in terms of the central bank... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Global backdrop exposing EMs with weak balance sheets Tighter global monetary policy and the strength of the US dollar continue to punish a number of frontier markets with weak sovereign balance sheets. Meanwhile, worries about Turkey’s balance of... 5th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry facing growing headwinds The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI to a three-month low last month was driven by China’s recovery stalling and weakness in export-oriented manufacturing EMs in parts of Asia and Eastern Europe. The... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack PBOC moving to defend key renminbi threshold The renminbi has weakened 2.5% against the US dollar since mid-August and is nearing our year-end forecast of 7.00/$. This is mostly a reflection of broad dollar strength – the renminbi is little... 31st August 2022 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but much tougher times ahead Economies across the region were generally resilient in Q2 despite tightening financial conditions and the war in Ukraine. Russia’s downturn was milder than expected, Turkey’s economy has held up well... 31st August 2022 · 12 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Hawkish central banks may still be still a headwind for EMs We think developed market (DM) monetary policy may be a threat to emerging market (EM) assets for some time yet. Note: Join our EM team on Thursday, 1 st September for their latest monthly online... 31st August 2022 · 8 mins read