Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-China ties in full swing, Ukraine’s IMF deal Russia-China relations were on full show this week as China's President Xi visited Moscow and the two counties announced a raft of measures to increase ties over the coming years. China has helped... 24th March 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Long-term manufacturing hopes brewing The overarching message from our latest India Economic Outlook published this week is that while prospects for the economy look a little uninspiring over the near term, there are reasons to be... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Global bank turmoil another headwind to Em Europe The turmoil in the global banking sector has not spread to Emerging Europe, but the focus is back on the health of the region’s banks given the not-so-distant memory of the 2008/09 banking crises that... 23rd March 2023 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Central banks under the spotlight Next week’s MPC meeting in Egypt, coming at a time of soaring inflation and growing concerns over the commitment to policy reforms, will prove critical to restoring investors’ faith. Policymakers will... 23rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar 2023.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped back by more than expected, to 7.1% y/y, in the first half of March but the further rise in services inflation will continue to concern policymakers at Banxico... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 23rd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect equities in EMs to continue to struggle Even if the banking sector turmoil doesn’t grow into a broader economic crisis, we still think equities in emerging markets will struggle over the next couple of quarters in local-currency terms. 22nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks in better shape, but external risks still high Turkey’s banking sector has been one of the weak links in the EM world in recent years due to its very high external debt burden. The good news is that banks have paid down these external debts and... 22nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting credit risks Spillovers from the global banking crisis to EMs appear limited so far. Encouragingly, too, most EM banks appear to be well placed to weather a period of rising non-performing loans resulting from... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor EMs, in general, don’t appear to have suffered large capital outflows over the past 10 days or so amid the turmoil in the global banking sector. But some countries with large current account deficits... 20th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EMs’ exposure to bank flows A key channel through which emerging markets could be affected by the strains in the global banking sector is if lending by foreign banks falls sharply. On this front, EMs’ vulnerabilities have eased... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Jan.) The large increases in industrial production and retail sales in Turkey in January suggest that the economy got off to a strong start in early 2023. Activity will have been disrupted from the... 13th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Russian inflation came in slightly softer than expected in February, at 11.0% y/y, and it will fall to the central bank’s 4% target in March as base effects pass through. We don’t think there’s been... 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish DM central banks may delay rate cuts in CEE The growing expectation that interest rates in developed markets will rise further and stay higher for longer than previously anticipated isn’t prompting us to abandon our view that central banks in... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Struggling rand may face more near-term pain The South African rand has weakened sharply against the US dollar so far this year, markedly underperforming other emerging market (EM) currencies. We expect domestic and global headwinds to drive a... 9th March 2023 · 4 mins read
