Event EM Drop-In: How will EM economies and markets fare in the global downturn? 3rd November 2022, 3:00PM GMT Economists from our Emerging Markets and Markets teams discussed the outlook for EM financial markets in this regular dive into the big stories in EMs. In addition to their dive into what the macro...
Event Egypt Drop-In: Will Cairo's reform announcements seal an IMF deal? 1666864800 The Egyptian government announced steps to tackle its economic crisis, including a shift to a more flexible exchange rate regime and accompanying interest rate hikes -- but will it be enough?
Emerging Markets Economics Update Core inflation pressures strongest in CEE A closer look at core inflation across EMs suggests that underlying price pressures have started to ease. But they remain very strong by historic standards in most countries – and particularly so in... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
India Economics Update India’s position in a fracturing global economy Since independence, India has preferred to stay unaligned geopolitically. But in a fracturing global economy, the security and macroeconomic benefits of leaning towards the US – and away from China –... 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Relative resilience of EM equity valuations could fade We don’t think the valuations of emerging market equities will continue to hold up better than those in developed markets if, as we expect, the global economy slips into recession. 21st October 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Lira-isation” policies are no cure for Turkey’s problems Policymakers in Turkey have doubled down on their new economic model of “lira-isation” by pursuing more extreme de-dollarisation policies in recent months. These appear to be having an impact in terms... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Rates to stay high for a long while yet EM tightening cycles have continued apace but, having started raising rates much earlier than their DM (and Asian) peers, some central banks in Latin America (Brazil, Chile) and Emerging Europe (Czech... 19th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Inflation and interest rates peaking Latin America is running into a growing set of headwinds, from the global recession to lower commodity prices to tight policy at home. We expect recessions in Chile and Argentina, and our growth... 19th October 2022 · 26 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EM Asian equities may drop further We think benchmark equity indices in Taiwan, Korea and India will fall a bit further over the remainder of this year and into 2023, as the global economy slips into a recession. 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Inflation & external pressures force the MNB’s hand Developments this week underscore that Hungary is facing much stronger inflation and external pressures than its regional peers. These forced the central bank (MNB) to tighten monetary policy further... 14th October 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly A bigger slice of Apple pie Apple’s decision to shift some of its manufacturing into India – and out of China – is an example of how the global economy is “fracturing” into US- and China-aligned blocs: the topic of our 2022... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region heading for recession Emerging European economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost... 13th October 2022 · 29 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM could be the next Sri Lanka? One question that we frequently get asked is which EM could be the next Sri Lanka. While there are several candidates, Tunisia concerns us most. The good news for the rest of the world is that the... 13th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs have picked up over the past month against the backdrop of a strong US dollar. We think that emerging economies will continue to find it difficult to attract foreign capital... 11th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB: treading its own path The bi-annual Monetary Policy Review released this week by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) bolsters our view that the tightening cycle, while slow to start, is likely to be one of the most... 7th October 2022 · 5 mins read