Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s bad loans, inflation outlook brightening Brazil’s president-elect Lula sent local financial markets into a tailspin late this week after he stressed the need for higher spending, reinforcing our concerns that the country’s public debt... 11th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: a fiscal health check The dramatic improvement in EM public finances since the height of the pandemic is starting to run out of steam. And we think that fiscal dynamics are likely to get worse next year in parts of Central... 11th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s economy heading from bad to worse Nigeria’s demonetisation efforts are likely to add to already-high economic costs of the country’s unorthodox policies. The resulting currency falls will fuel inflation further and disruptions to... 10th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Decline in EM exports has further to run Our seasonally-adjusted measure of aggregate EM goods exports recorded a decline in dollar terms in September and leading indicators point to further falls over the rest of the year. And with... 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Tougher times may lie ahead for Brazil’s markets Brazil’s financial markets have been some of the world’s best performers lately, supported in part by the prospect of centrist policymaking by incoming president Lula. With the presidential election... 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think optimism around China’s COVID policy is misplaced The recent rally in assets and currencies linked to the prospects of China’s economy on hopes that the authorities in China will relax their “zero-COVID” policy is unlikely to last. 7th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Event Markets Drop-In: Looming global recession another threat to risky assets 1668004200 Chief Markets Economist John Higgins held a discussion with economists from across our Markets team shortly after the release of our Q4 Outlooks.
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier currencies in the firing line Currencies in some of the largest frontier markets, including Nigeria and Vietnam, have come under pressure recently as the external backdrop has deteriorated and domestic policy concerns have mounted... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry set for further weakness Although the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI rose in October, a closer look at the surveys shows that there was a widespread deterioration in EM industry. Highly-open manufacturing economies including... 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Outlook Probably approaching the final stage of the dollar rally While the dollar has now reached a 20-year high and looks increasingly overvalued on a long-term basis, we think it will rise further in the near term as the global economy falls into recession and... 2nd November 2022 · 24 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set stage for sluggish growth EM GDP growth has slowed sharply this year and is likely to remain sluggish in 2023 and 2024 as weak external demand and tight financial conditions take their toll. Having started hiking rates much... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Recession looms as tightening bites 1667919600 Our Global Economics team held a 20-minute online briefing on the outlook for the global economy and policy on Tuesday, 8th November.