Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Turkey CPI (Mar.) Manufacturing PMIs for March were weak in Czechia and Poland and suggest that industry remained in recessionary territory in Q1. But there were some bright spots, including the marked improvement in... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading edged up in March and points to healthy growth in the sector. This should provide some added source of comfort to the RBI to hike rates again this Thursday. But the... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s political crisis, another Bulgarian election Israel's political crisis that flared up earlier this week has since calmed down after PM Netanyahu paused the government's controversial judicial reforms. While tensions may flare up again and Israel... 31st March 2023 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Monetary policymakers in hawkish mode, debt in focus Central banks in South Africa, Kenya and Ghana all stepped up the pace of monetary tightening this week as concerns about inflation and currency weakness flared up. But we doubt that the rule of... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks keep up the inflation fight The broad message from the recent spate of EM central bank meetings is that policymakers are still focussed on reining in inflation even as the global banking turmoil has led to a shift down in... 31st March 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil flows, remittances boost, RBI preview The announcement from Russian oil giant Rosneft that it will ramp up oil imports to India, and the US court ruling enabling partners of H-1B visa holders to work in the country, should both serve to... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2023) The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) announced that it raised interest rates by 200bp, taking the overnight deposit rate to 18.25%, this evening in a much-needed decision. While this is clearly a positive... 30th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Water strains, Saudi-China relations, CBE meeting Tunisia and Morocco are in the midst of severe droughts that could weigh on activity in the key agricultural and tourism sectors, and could possibly stoke social unrest. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia... 30th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: How has bank turmoil affected the financial markets outlook? 1680616800 With the dust settling on the recent turmoil in US and European banks, economists from across our financial markets coverage assessed the damage to the outlook for bonds, equities and FX.
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA set for a much weaker 2023 Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, in 2023. IMF deals will help to contain balance of payments strains in the non-Gulf economies but... 30th March 2023 · 25 mins read
RBI Watch April hike likely, but cuts to come onto agenda soon With the turmoil in the global banking system appearing to have eased and inflation still above the RBI’s 2-6% target range, we think the MPC will push ahead with a final 25bp hike to the repo rate... 30th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) The improvement in the Russian industrial production and retail sales data for February provide further evidence that economic activity recovered at the start of this year. We think that GDP is likely... 29th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs weather the global banking storm Spill-overs to EMs from the turmoil in the global banking system have been limited. There don’t appear to be signs of strain in EM banks themselves, outflows of capital have been small and, in general... 29th March 2023 · 9 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Are EMs also at risk from bank turmoil? 1680789600 Recent turmoil in the banking sector may have been a US and European story, but there are potentially important angles for Emerging Market investors.
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Is the door closing for fiscal loosening in the Gulf? One of the main channels through which the Gulf countries are exposed to worries about the health of the global banking system in through energy markets, with the price of Brent crude falling by 13%... 24th March 2023 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Central banks focus on inflation and currency risks Nigeria’s central bank shrugged off the recent banking sector turmoil and kept its eye firmly focussed on tackling inflation as it hiked interest rates this week and, on balance, we think that... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
