Asia Economics Weekly Falling fertility in Korea, government in retreat New figures released this week show that the fertility rate in Korea fell again last year to a new all-time low of just 0.72 births per woman. The decline in the fertility rate will weigh heavily on... 30th August 2024 · 7 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth picks up thanks to fiscal boost Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity growth edged up in July thanks to a ramp-up in fiscal spending. Policy support will continue to drive a cyclical recovery over the coming months. But... 29th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Libya’s crisis, Egypt’s central bank meeting The oil market was rocked by two political shocks in the past week: an exchange of missiles between Israel and Hezbollah and a crisis in Libya, which led to cuts to its oil output. At the margin, the... 29th August 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC at the mercy of leadership’s muddled priorities The PBOC appears poised to step up its efforts to prevent bond yields from falling, even though lower borrowing costs would help the economy right now. The inconsistencies in its policy approach are... 29th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2024) EM recoveries are beginning to slow and should continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard... 29th August 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) The latest Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for July were a mixed bag and suggest that the economy maintained a steady pace of growth at the start of this quarter. But we still... 28th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold again today (at 4.50%) rather than resume the easing cycle, reflects policymakers’ concerns with supply-side constraints in... 28th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: a bumpy recovery ahead The pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth seen in Q2 will probably be followed by a renewed slowdown this quarter. But we think the backdrop of rising oil production, falling inflation and possible interest... 28th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. '24) Our latest Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters... 28th August 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Hungarian central bank suggested that its decision to leave the policy rate on hold today, at 6.75%, was likely to mark a temporary pause in the easing cycle, rather than an end to it. Even so, we... 27th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Q2 GDP and business survey, SA inflation A central bank survey published this week suggested that businesses in Nigeria are still downbeat on the economy, but we think slowing inflation and a more stable naira may soon bring some near-term... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, CBRT’s forward guidance Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia continued this week and although developments are highly uncertain at this stage, it has big implications for the war. On balance, we think it could delay any... 23rd August 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug '24) GDP growth looks set for a modest pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain... 23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debate over inflation target misses the point A longstanding debate in Indian policymaking circles over which measure of consumer price inflation - headline or core - the RBI should target has been reignited in recent weeks. But the more... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
