China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.)

Both bank lending and broad credit growth hit fresh lows in October in a sign that monetary easing hasn’t done enough to drive a substantial turnaround in private credit demand. And after last week’s...

12th November 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct. 2024)

Headline CPI and PPI inflation both fell further in October. But core inflation edged up and factory gate prices fell more slowly in m/m terms, a sign that recent stimulus efforts are having some...

11th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa

A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and...

8th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

War and peace

Donald Trump’s victory in the US election could pave the way for dialogue with Russia and a ceasefire in Ukraine, but we think it's unlikely in this scenario that sanctions on Russia would be lifted...

8th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The National Bank of Romania left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, against a backdrop of stubborn above-target inflation and concerns about the loose fiscal stance ahead of elections...

8th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Oct. 2024)

The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.8% y/y in October means that the central bank is almost certain to deliver additional interest rate hikes at its upcoming meetings. The risks...

8th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s Trump challenge

Mexico is one of the most vulnerable economies to the policies that US President-elect Trump flagged on the campaign trail. This Update looks at the channels through which it could be affected. One...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.00%, and we still think that the conditions will be in place for the policy rate to be lowered to its estimated neutral level of 3...

7th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Trump-shaped shadow looms large over COP29

COP29 – which is set to kick off in Baku next week – has been dubbed the ‘finance COP’ given that the top priority for negotiators will be to agree on a new climate finance pledge. However, Trump’s...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

Trump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & China

Large US tariffs would hurt China’s export sector but less than many suppose. We estimate that the direct impact of even a 60% US tariff on goods from China would be well under 1% of China’s GDP. The...

7th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2024)

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Focus

The macro and market consequences of a second Trump administration

Donald Trump’s second presidency is likely to result in lower US GDP growth, faster US inflation and a slightly higher path for the fed funds rate. The implications for the rest of the world are...

6th November 2024 · 14 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we think that interest rate cuts are unlikely to resume until the middle of...

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey set for a slow disinflation process

Inflation figures out of Turkey – including those published for October yesterday – have surprised on the upside and forward-looking indicators suggest that the disinflation process will be slow in...

5th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil’s bond sell-off: lessons from 2015

The rise in Brazilian local currency government bond yields this year is now on a scale similar to that seen during its fiscal crisis in 2015. Back then, bond yields only started to fall back when...

4th November 2024 · 3 mins read