Africa Economics Update

The potential losers if AGOA is removed

US President-elect Trump’s protectionist rhetoric may mean that African sovereigns are contemplating the loss of preferential trade access to the US via the AGOA scheme. We think the overall impact...

21st November 2024 · 5 mins read

India Economics Update

India, Trump tariffs and friendshoring prospects

Friendshoring into India has for the most part been limited to high-end manufactured goods, but broader supply chain reconfiguration into the country could take place if the Trump administration...

21st November 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Trump and EMs: key questions answered

We held a series of client meetings in the US last week which focused on the implications of Trump’s victory in the US election and the spillovers to EMs. This Update answers some of the most frequent...

20th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s activity data signals soft end to Q3

South Africa’s activity data for September points to a subdued end to Q3, but we think this softer patch will be short-lived as low inflation and the SARB’s easing cycle provide some support to demand...

20th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct. '24)

The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation, to 2.8% y/y, in October, will make it harder for the SARB to strike a hawkish tone regarding inflation pressures at its monetary policy committee meeting...

20th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

19th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Rand weakness, Zambia hikes rates

The South African has been one of the worst performing EM currencies since the US election, a symptom of the “Trump trade”, but also sharp falls in the prices of key commodity exports. We expect the...

15th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Marco Rubio, Latin America & fracturing

US President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of Mark Rubio as secretary of state suggests that – after years of neglect – Latin America will play a more prominent role in US foreign policy in the next...

15th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer

The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases...

15th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct' 24)

Nigeria’s headline inflation picked up for a second consecutive month, to 33.9% y/y in October, largely due to the impact of rising petrol prices. The CBN now appears to have little choice but...

15th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

Mexico’s central bank delivered another 25bp interest rate cut at today’s meeting, to 10.25%, and it left the door open to further easing over the coming months, although a lot will depend on moves in...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Trump and the war in Ukraine

Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the...

14th November 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland GDP (Q3 2024)

The 0.2% q/q contraction in Polish GDP in Q3 partly reflects the impact of flooding in September, the impact of which will reverse this quarter. Even so, we have become a bit more concerned about...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.)

13th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SA mining: onus is on reform for recovery

South Africa’s mining sector has been a struggling part of the economy for some time and, while easing logistical and electricity constraints will provide some relief, weaker commodity prices in the...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read