US Economic Outlook Fiscal cliff still likely to be averted We still expect the newly re-elected President Obama and Congress to reach an agreement to avert most of the scheduled tax hikes and spending cuts that would otherwise kick in at the start of next... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Downside risks abound Our baseline forecast for the US economy looks fairly benign, with GDP growth gradually picking up from 1.5% annualised in the second half of this year to 2.0% next year. However, we would stress that... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery looks to be on firmer ground The US recovery looks to be on firmer ground, despite the mounting crisis in the euro-zone. We anticipate GDP growth of 2.0% this year and 2.5% in 2013. 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery at a crossroads... again The recent improvement in the incoming economic data, particularly in relation to the labour market, has raised hopes that the US economy could shrug off the crisis in the euro-zone and finally enjoy... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Pick up in GDP growth won't be sustained in 2012 The latest incoming data suggest that US economic growth is accelerating, even as growth in Asia slows and Europe falls back into recession. Unfortunately, there are many reasons to fear that GDP... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery going from bad to worse Recent developments have only reinforced our long-held belief that the economic recovery will remain unusually lacklustre for several more years. We now expect GDP growth of just 1.5% in 2012 and 2.0%... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal consolidation will mean slower GDP growth The shift towards fiscal consolidation is another reason to suspect that the US economic recovery will remain muted. We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.5% this year to 2.0% in 2012. In an environment... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery still dependent on policy stimulus The recovery regained momentum over the final few months of last year and, helped by the boost from the latest fiscal stimulus, we expect GDP growth of 3% this year. 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Muted recovery will eventually lead to deflation The US economic recovery shows few signs of any meaningful acceleration, suggesting that unemployment will remain chronically high and inflation will continue to edge towards zero. There is now a... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
