US Economic Outlook Vaccines and stimulus to boost recovery With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid... 19th January 2021 · 24 mins read
US Economic Outlook Elections, vaccine, and virus resurgence all key risks Following a 3.7% decline this year, we expect GDP growth to be a solid 4.5% in 2021, but the risks to that forecast on both sides are, frankly, enormous. The key downside risk is that recurring waves... 1st October 2020 · 23 mins read
US Economic Outlook Road to recovery will be long and bumpy The easing of the lockdowns has generated a bigger rebound in spending in May and June than we were originally anticipating but, given the resurgence in coronavirus infections, the pace of recovery is... 6th July 2020 · 24 mins read
US Economic Outlook Virus disruption will only be partly reversed in H2 As a result of the coronavirus and the containment measures put in place to constrain its spread, we now anticipate an unprecedented 40% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP, with the unemployment... 6th April 2020 · 22 mins read
US Economic Outlook Fed to remain on side lines as economy heats up Although trade tensions and the presidential election remain key downside risks, we expect looser financial conditions to drive an acceleration in GDP growth from the second half of next year onwards... 16th December 2019 · 24 mins read
US Economic Outlook Trade war and election add to uncertainty We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.3% this year to 1.4% in 2020, before a more favourable post-election policy mix generates a rebound to 2.0% in 2021. Under those circumstances, we anticipate one... 26th September 2019 · 22 mins read
US Economic Outlook Downside risks mount We expect GDP growth to slow sharply in the second half of this year, prompting the Fed to cut interest rates by a cumulative 75bp. GDP growth will slow from 2.3% this year to 1.2% in 2020, before... 27th June 2019 · 24 mins read
US Economic Outlook Slowdown will force Fed to reverse course We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.9% to 2.0% this year and only 1.4% in 2020. That weakness should convince the Fed to reverse course and cut interest rates by a cumulative 75bp, with the first... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fed will need to reverse course in 2020 Our confidence in our long-held view that a shifting policy mix will cause economic growth to slow in 2019 has only strengthened in recent months. The turmoil in markets suggests that others are... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Shifting policy mix points to economic slowdown Boosted by the fiscal stimulus, GDP growth is still on track to be a solid 2.8% this year but, as that stimulus fades and the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy, we expect growth to slow to 2.2%... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook When will boom turn to bust? Fuelled by the fiscal stimulus, we expect GDP growth to be 2.9% this year but, as the stimulus fades and higher interest rates become a bigger drag on the economy, growth should slow to 2.0% in 2019... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus will prompt more monetary tightening With the benefits of the fiscal stimulus, strong global demand and the weaker dollar, we expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.8% in 2018. As the fiscal stimulus begins to wear off and the cumulative... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook 2018 will be as good as it gets It is hard to see how the US economy could have a bad year in 2018. GDP growth has been gaining momentum in 2017, the global economy is experiencing a strong synchronised upswing, borrowing costs... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus to provide short-term boost to growth After another soft start to the year, US economic growth is now benefitting from an upturn in global activity and a loosening of financial conditions. The weaker dollar should boost export growth... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Growth to accelerate, but downside risks mounting In our baseline scenario, which still includes a fiscal stimulus early next year, we expect GDP growth to accelerate from 2.2% this year to 2.5% in 2018. The downside risks to that scenario have... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Pick-up in growth will prompt more Fed tightening We suspect that any fiscal stimulus will now be delayed until early next year, but the recent strength of the survey evidence suggests that GDP growth will still be a healthy 2.3% this year, up from 1... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
