UK Economics Focus Will low inflation keep the MPC at bay? Low inflation will not stop interest rates from rising, perhaps quite soon. But it should limit the size and speed of any increase and help the economic recovery to continue largely unconstrained. 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the Financial Policy Committee cool the housing market? The FPC has a number of policy tools at its disposal should it decide it needs to cool the housing market. Provided it acts with sufficient conviction, there is every chance that the new tools will... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2014: Mr Osborne keeps the shackles in place This was a fiscally neutral Budget which, from a macro-economic standpoint, changes very little. With the fiscal consolidation set to continue for at least another five years, the responsibility for... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2014 Preview With not much more than a year until the next general election, the Budget on March 19th is one of the Chancellor’s last chances to boost his party’s re-election prospects. But with the fiscal... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will onshoring boost the recovery? There are some signs that the benefits of offshoring may be diminishing. Indeed, a reverse process of ‘onshoring’ could already be in train. But onshoring seems likely to be confined to the... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policy help or hinder the recovery? Provided that low inflation allows monetary policy to remain very loose for some time yet and a further sharp rise in the pound can be avoided, policy should not be major hindrance to the economic... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is low inflation back for good? This year looks set to be the first since 2004 that the average inflation rate is below the 2% target. And with output still below its potential, a strong recovery is unlikely to generate price... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the economy rebalance? A shift in the driver of growth from consumers to investment and exports continues to be the great white whale of economic policy. While there are good reasons to aspire to a more balanced recovery... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Growth in workforce will help keep interest rates down Some have argued that strong job creation will rapidly push down unemployment to the MPC’s 7% threshold. But this overlooks developments in another determinant of the unemployment rate – growth in the... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2013: Mr Osborne sticks to the path This is a responsible package which is broadly fiscally neutral. The key message is that the UK’s fiscal consolidation still has a long way to go. 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2013 Preview With the economic recovery yet to have much impact on the Government's popularity, Chancellor George Osborne may be tempted to use the proceeds of stronger growth to fund a small giveaway in the... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sector insight: leisure The prospects for the leisure sector look reasonably good. A cyclical rebound will help the sector in the near-term. And longer-term, leisure spending will disproportionately benefit as people both... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Too low for too long? Following the Bank of England’s announcement of forward guidance, there have been a number of warnings about the dangers of a further prolonged period of very low interest rates. We think these... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Have households fixed their balance sheets? Households have done the bulk of the work in repairing their balance sheets, but we don’t think that they are quite there yet. Household debt as a share of income probably has a bit further to fall... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the income squeeze nearly over? UK consumers have endured the worst squeeze on their real incomes since the 1920s, but finally the end is in sight. We expect falling inflation, a rebound in productivity and some support from tax... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the housing market give consumers a boost? Past housing market upswings have all coincided with above-average rates of consumer spending growth. But it is easy to overstate the strength of the direct linkages between the two. Therefore, unless... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
