UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2013 Preview With the economic recovery yet to have much impact on the Government's popularity, Chancellor George Osborne may be tempted to use the proceeds of stronger growth to fund a small giveaway in the... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sector insight: leisure The prospects for the leisure sector look reasonably good. A cyclical rebound will help the sector in the near-term. And longer-term, leisure spending will disproportionately benefit as people both... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Too low for too long? Following the Bank of England’s announcement of forward guidance, there have been a number of warnings about the dangers of a further prolonged period of very low interest rates. We think these... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Have households fixed their balance sheets? Households have done the bulk of the work in repairing their balance sheets, but we don’t think that they are quite there yet. Household debt as a share of income probably has a bit further to fall... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the income squeeze nearly over? UK consumers have endured the worst squeeze on their real incomes since the 1920s, but finally the end is in sight. We expect falling inflation, a rebound in productivity and some support from tax... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the housing market give consumers a boost? Past housing market upswings have all coincided with above-average rates of consumer spending growth. But it is easy to overstate the strength of the direct linkages between the two. Therefore, unless... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can retailers rebuild their margins? The outlook for retailers’ costs is brighter than it has been for many years. That said, with only a weak recovery in household incomes in prospect and competitive pressures likely to intensify... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will unemployment fall sooner than the MPC thinks? There seems to be a general view that the MPC is underestimating how quickly unemployment will fall to the 7% threshold set under forward guidance, helping to explain why markets expect interest rates... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the recovery continue without bank lending? The economic recovery has been gathering pace despite the absence of any pick-up in bank lending. We expect lending to remain weak. Although we don’t think that this will halt the recovery altogether... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will consumers drive a recovery after all? Growth in consumer spending has been one of the few bright spots for the economy over the past year. But we doubt a continued consumer recovery will be that strong, at least in the near-term. In any... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can Carney save the day? The recent rise in interest rate expectations and gilt yields has boosted the case for Mr Carney to start on a strong note by introducing forward guidance and resuming quantitative easing. Bold action... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the Government get the housing market going? The Chancellor’s efforts to engineer a sustainable, demand-led recovery in mortgage lending and housebuilding are unlikely to succeed. One possible outcome is that prices simply surge, pushing housing... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sector insight: clothing Consumers have shown tremendous zeal for buying clothes over the last decade, despite the recession and the squeeze on their incomes. But they have been teased into the shops by falling prices. We... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the UK turning Japanese? The UK economy is at risk of following a path that is, if anything, worse than the ‘lost decades’ Japan experienced from the early 1990s. While the UK possesses some advantages Japan lacked, in some... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why have we been wrong on inflation? While we think that we’ve done a pretty good job of forecasting the economy recently, we readily admit that our record of forecasting inflation has left a lot to be desired. Given the apparently... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
