UK Economics Focus How do the US and UK monetary policy outlooks differ? Although we anticipate that the first interest rate hikes in both the US and the UK will come around the same time, towards the end of the first quarter next year, we expect the subsequent pace of... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus A Scottish ‘No’ would have limited economic impact but a ‘Yes’ would rattle markets and the Scottish economy We anticipate a muted financial and economic response if Scotland votes ‘No’ on 18th Septembersince both markets and most companies are expecting this. By contrast, we think a ‘Yes’ vote wouldhave a... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Has forward guidance been a success? One year on, the report card for the MPC’s forward guidance is decidedly mixed. While it may have boosted confidence, it seems to have fallen short of meeting the MPC’s aims of clarifying its... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sector insight: cars - Will sales keep growing at full throttle? Whilst a pick-up in earnings, the older average age of existing cars and attractive financing deals should persuade more households visit their local dealership over the next few years, we doubt that... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the recovery sustainable? Provided that interest rates rise only gradually over the years ahead, the UK economy looks set for a prolonged period of strong growth which mends rather than exacerbates its existing imbalances. 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are the housing market's warning lights flashing? The recent drop in mortgage approvals does not negate the need for the FPC to test its new macro-prudential powers . For one thing, we expect the drop in lending to be temporary. In addition, the re... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will low inflation keep the MPC at bay? Low inflation will not stop interest rates from rising, perhaps quite soon. But it should limit the size and speed of any increase and help the economic recovery to continue largely unconstrained. 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the Financial Policy Committee cool the housing market? The FPC has a number of policy tools at its disposal should it decide it needs to cool the housing market. Provided it acts with sufficient conviction, there is every chance that the new tools will... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2014: Mr Osborne keeps the shackles in place This was a fiscally neutral Budget which, from a macro-economic standpoint, changes very little. With the fiscal consolidation set to continue for at least another five years, the responsibility for... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2014 Preview With not much more than a year until the next general election, the Budget on March 19th is one of the Chancellor’s last chances to boost his party’s re-election prospects. But with the fiscal... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will onshoring boost the recovery? There are some signs that the benefits of offshoring may be diminishing. Indeed, a reverse process of ‘onshoring’ could already be in train. But onshoring seems likely to be confined to the... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policy help or hinder the recovery? Provided that low inflation allows monetary policy to remain very loose for some time yet and a further sharp rise in the pound can be avoided, policy should not be major hindrance to the economic... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is low inflation back for good? This year looks set to be the first since 2004 that the average inflation rate is below the 2% target. And with output still below its potential, a strong recovery is unlikely to generate price... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the economy rebalance? A shift in the driver of growth from consumers to investment and exports continues to be the great white whale of economic policy. While there are good reasons to aspire to a more balanced recovery... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Growth in workforce will help keep interest rates down Some have argued that strong job creation will rapidly push down unemployment to the MPC’s 7% threshold. But this overlooks developments in another determinant of the unemployment rate – growth in the... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2013: Mr Osborne sticks to the path This is a responsible package which is broadly fiscally neutral. The key message is that the UK’s fiscal consolidation still has a long way to go. 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
