UK Economics Focus Pension reforms: Ford Fiestas, not Lamborghinis The pension reforms that come into effect next month create the potential for tens of billions of pounds to be transferred out of pension funds and into the wider economy. The actual amount that will... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2015 Preview When the coalition came to power, it envisaged eradicating the black hole in the public finances within five years, paving the way for big handouts by the time of this election. With the job only half... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why are the public finances not already fixed? If the fiscal squeeze had gone to plan, no more austerity would now be needed. The assumption that the recovery would be strong and tax-friendly was misplaced. The next government should be dealt a... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Deflation to have limited impact on pay round With inflation set to turn negative during the busiest time of the year for pay bargaining, the MPC will be on red alert for any signs that deflation is having a knock-on effect on pay deals... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the economic recovery maintain its pace? The latest news suggests that the economic recovery is getting back on track after a slowdown towards the end of last year. Indeed, we remain optimistic about the growth outlook. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal and monetary policy after the election CPI inflation looks set to turn negative in the next few months. Whilst we expect the UK’s period of deflation to be short and shallow, there are a number of factors which nonetheless should mean that... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is very low inflation the new norm? CPI inflation looks set to turn negative in the next few months. Whilst we expect the UK’s period of deflation to be short and shallow, there are a number of factors which nonetheless should mean that... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2014: Staying the course This was a budget in all but name – and a pre-election one at that. It was designed to be attractive to voters in the here and now, while not taking any risks with the public finances. 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2014 Preview George Osborne will present his fifth Autumn Statement on 3rd December under mounting pressure from his fiscal and opinion poll deficits. Despite this, he seems unlikely to panic and abandon his tough... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The economy and the election With less than six months to go until the general election, opinion polls suggest that another hung parliament is likely. But the state of the economy next May still has the potential to change the... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How do the US and UK monetary policy outlooks differ? Although we anticipate that the first interest rate hikes in both the US and the UK will come around the same time, towards the end of the first quarter next year, we expect the subsequent pace of... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus A Scottish ‘No’ would have limited economic impact but a ‘Yes’ would rattle markets and the Scottish economy We anticipate a muted financial and economic response if Scotland votes ‘No’ on 18th Septembersince both markets and most companies are expecting this. By contrast, we think a ‘Yes’ vote wouldhave a... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Has forward guidance been a success? One year on, the report card for the MPC’s forward guidance is decidedly mixed. While it may have boosted confidence, it seems to have fallen short of meeting the MPC’s aims of clarifying its... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sector insight: cars - Will sales keep growing at full throttle? Whilst a pick-up in earnings, the older average age of existing cars and attractive financing deals should persuade more households visit their local dealership over the next few years, we doubt that... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the recovery sustainable? Provided that interest rates rise only gradually over the years ahead, the UK economy looks set for a prolonged period of strong growth which mends rather than exacerbates its existing imbalances. 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are the housing market's warning lights flashing? The recent drop in mortgage approvals does not negate the need for the FPC to test its new macro-prudential powers . For one thing, we expect the drop in lending to be temporary. In addition, the re... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
