UK Economics Focus How much of an inflationary threat is the labour market? The labour market has been rapidly tightening, but there are reasons to think that this won’t feed into a surge in wage growth soon. Indeed, we think there is at least some slack left in the labour... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will fiscal policy derail the recovery? Contrary to what many newspaper headlines claimed after the Autumn Statement towards the end of last year, we have not reached the end of austerity. Not in the slightest. However, we think that the... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How far and how fast will inflation and interest rates rise? The tumble in inflation from the most recent peak of just over 5% in late-2011 to an average of 0% in 2015 has provided a welcome boost to the economy. But with near-zero rates of inflation now in the... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can consumers continue to shoulder the recovery? Yesterday’s GDP figures showed that growth in Q4 was entirely driven by the services sector, suggesting that consumer spending continued to shoulder the economic recovery at the end of last year. And... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What is the best way to reduce public sector debt? The easiest way to cut the government debt ratio would be to let economic growth do the work. Yet this could take decades. Cutting it faster would mean running smaller deficits at first, then... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2015: OBR digs Osborne out of a hole This was a much more benign Autumn Statement than most had anticipated. Nonetheless, the big picture is still that austerity will renew in earnest next year – although we think that the economic... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement & Spending Review 2015 Preview Although the Chancellor will use his Autumn Statement on 25th November to soften the blow forhouseholds facing cuts in their tax credits, the big picture will still be that the economy faces a... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Brexit mean for the UK economy? We doubt that the UK’s outlook hinges on the Brexit question. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Union (EU) was a big deal for the UK. We think that the UK economy will do... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Brexit wouldn't spell disaster for UK exports Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing a series of pieces of work looking at the impact that leaving the EU would have on the UK economy, culminating in a presentation at our annual conference... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policymakers choke off the recovery? Over the coming months, the economy will have to absorb both a renewed fiscal tightening and the first rise in interest rates since 2007. But the public sector cuts will now be phased in more... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Reasons to be cheerful Given the ongoing troubles in the euro-zone and fears about a slowdown in China, one could be forgiven for adopting something of a gloomy mood. However, there are plenty of reasons to remain cheerful... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2015: Less radical, more pragmatic This was not as radical a Budget as many had feared and some had hoped. It was, as the Chancellor presented it, a “One Nation” Budget. From the macroeconomic viewpoint, the most important aspect was... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2015 Preview The Budget on 8th July will be all about providing the details of the second stage of austerity and hopes have been building that Mr Osborne will smooth the profile of the spending cuts. But the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The UK economy after the election While the Conservatives’ victory removed some of the uncertainty hanging over the economy, it has some more worrying implications – such as the renewed fiscal squeeze and the EU referendum. But we... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Election 2015 Preview The economic outlook will not turn on a sixpence after the election. Granted, the election may mark only the start of a period of political uncertainty and, on paper, the differences between Labour’s... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2015: Sticking to his guns This was a budget designed to bolster the Government’s reputation for sound economic management and to make Labour’s plans for a looser fiscal stance look irresponsible. In 2015/16, the sum total of... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
