UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2016: Creating room for manoeuvre The recent robustness of the economy prompted the Chancellor to make only a modest adjustment to the stance of fiscal policy in his first Autumn Statement. But his new fiscal rules provide room for... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2016 Preview Despite Chancellor Hammond’s rare opportunity to make a substantial changes to the stance of UK fiscal policy in the Autumn Statement on 23rd November, lingering worries about the outlook for the... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the construction sector dig itself out of trouble? The first raft of economic data covering the post-referendum period has been fairly robust. But not all sectors have been performing well, with the construction sector still in the doldrums. 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What could the MPC’s “package of measures” consist of The package of policy options the MPC will unveil on 4th August could include rate cuts, the purchase of gilts and corporate bonds, an expansion of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS), forward... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What does Brexit mean for the public finances? It appears likely that the Chancellor won’t ramp up austerity to offset the negative impact of Brexiton the public finances. Instead, we think he will increase borrowing further relative to... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will policymakers respond to the Brexit vote? The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to look through the inflationary consequences of the drop in the pound seen since the Brexit vote and focus instead on cushioning the... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The implications of the digital revolution Professor Sir Charles Bean’s recent report on UK statistics suggested that the rise of the “digital economy” is not being adequately captured by the official economic figures. If true, this could go... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will investment income eliminate the current account deficit? The main culprit for the UK’s huge current account deficit is the recent deterioration in the UK’s investment income balance. While we expect some of this to be cyclical, we doubt that we will see a... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What to expect after the referendum result We have written plenty about the economic effects of both a “remain” and “leave” vote, but in reality it is not that clear-cut. In either scenario, whether the vote is won by a small or large margin... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The implications of a vote to stay in the EU If the UK votes to stay in the EU, we expect a kneejerk strengthening in financial markets, although any rise in the pound might be short-lived. The economic recovery would quickly get back on track... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the economic slowdown about more than Brexit? Brexit concerns have not been the only driver of the recent slowdown, suggesting that we should not expect a particularly big rebound in activity if the UK votes to stay in the EU in June. At the same... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would a Brexit mean for Scotland? This Thursday marks the date that the Scottish government had pencilled in for “independence day” if Scotland had voted to leave the UK in 2014’s independence referendum. So it seems a particularly... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2016: Safety first Whether the chancellor meets his objective of eliminating the budget deficit by the end of this parliament depends upon how well the economy performs. Because we are more optimistic than the OBR about... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The UK’s trade deficit is all the euro-zone’s fault For all the hopes of a rebalancing towards exports, the UK’s trade deficit with the rest of the world has barely narrowed since the financial crisis. Our analysis suggests that a chronic lack of... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2016 Preview With the Chancellor constrained by both the public finances and a desire not to rock the boat ahead of the EU referendum, this Budget is unlikely to be a radical affair. Any changes to the borrowing... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Short-term costs of a Brexit wouldn’t derail recovery Although we think that the UK will do well in the long run whether inside or outside of the EU, there is clearly potential for a disruptive short-term impact from the uncertainty that would be seen... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
