UK Economics Focus Election 2017 Preview With major differences between the main parties both on Brexit and the stance and mix of fiscal policy, the outcome of the general election on June 8th could have a rather greater impact on the... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2017: OBR ties Hammond’s hands The Office for Budget Responsibility’s caution on both the economic and fiscal outlook limited the Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre in this last spring Budget. But he still has a little room to loosen... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2017 Preview The more rapid improvement in the public finances than anticipated in the Autumn Statement, should give the Chancellor a borrowing windfall. However, the recent strength in the economy means that... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policy help or hinder? The response from policy makers is one of the main reasons that the UK economy has so far weathered the Brexit vote well. And there are reasons to think that monetary and fiscal policy can continue to... 13th February 2017 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus What have we learned about Brexit? The prospect of Brexit has proved much less damaging to the UK economy than most forecasters expected after the referendum seven months ago. And while there is still much uncertainty over what Brexit... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How worried should we be about inflation? Sterling’s post-referendum fall has clearly put inflation on a steep upward trajectory this year. But there are reasons to think that the forthcoming rise in CPI inflation won’t be too great and that... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2016: Creating room for manoeuvre The recent robustness of the economy prompted the Chancellor to make only a modest adjustment to the stance of fiscal policy in his first Autumn Statement. But his new fiscal rules provide room for... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2016 Preview Despite Chancellor Hammond’s rare opportunity to make a substantial changes to the stance of UK fiscal policy in the Autumn Statement on 23rd November, lingering worries about the outlook for the... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the construction sector dig itself out of trouble? The first raft of economic data covering the post-referendum period has been fairly robust. But not all sectors have been performing well, with the construction sector still in the doldrums. 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What could the MPC’s “package of measures” consist of The package of policy options the MPC will unveil on 4th August could include rate cuts, the purchase of gilts and corporate bonds, an expansion of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS), forward... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What does Brexit mean for the public finances? It appears likely that the Chancellor won’t ramp up austerity to offset the negative impact of Brexiton the public finances. Instead, we think he will increase borrowing further relative to... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will policymakers respond to the Brexit vote? The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to look through the inflationary consequences of the drop in the pound seen since the Brexit vote and focus instead on cushioning the... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The implications of the digital revolution Professor Sir Charles Bean’s recent report on UK statistics suggested that the rise of the “digital economy” is not being adequately captured by the official economic figures. If true, this could go... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will investment income eliminate the current account deficit? The main culprit for the UK’s huge current account deficit is the recent deterioration in the UK’s investment income balance. While we expect some of this to be cyclical, we doubt that we will see a... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What to expect after the referendum result We have written plenty about the economic effects of both a “remain” and “leave” vote, but in reality it is not that clear-cut. In either scenario, whether the vote is won by a small or large margin... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The implications of a vote to stay in the EU If the UK votes to stay in the EU, we expect a kneejerk strengthening in financial markets, although any rise in the pound might be short-lived. The economic recovery would quickly get back on track... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
