UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Response – Jam tomorrow While the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) latest forecasts failed to deliver the expected “growth windfall”, the Chancellor still managed to maintain an upbeat tone in the Spring Statement... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Preview – Banking the growth windfall Things seem to be going the Chancellor’s way at the moment (for a change). Not only did GDP grow more strongly in 2017 than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted, and the public... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How much longer will the consumer squeeze last? 2017 was a fairly dismal year for consumers. With prices rising more quickly than wages, consumer spending growth has halved since 2016. But is the worst of the squeeze now behind us, or is there... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will Brexit uncertainty finally bite in 2018? A key reason why most forecasters were too gloomy about the UK economy last year was that Brexit-related uncertainty was much less damaging than they had expected. Judging by the gloominess of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Response – Chancellor defies OBR’s gloom As expected, the Chancellor Philip Hammond was constrained by the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) gloom over the economic outlook. Nonetheless, recent favourable fiscal trends and some timely... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Preview – OBR will box the Chancellor in The Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre in the Budget on 22nd November will be severely restricted by a gloomier outlook for economic growth. We expect a broadly fiscally neutral package of measures to... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How is Brexit shaping up? This Focus discusses what we have learnt about the Brexit negotiations so far. It addresses four key questions. First, are there now signs that Brexit worries are weighing on the economy? Second, how... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will exports and investment pick up the baton? While the fall in the pound hasn’t yet boosted net trade, there are signs that the external sector will soon start making positive contributions to GDP growth. The depreciation should also support... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can consumers survive the pay squeeze? With the effects of the lower pound appearing to be fading at the start of the production line, CPI inflation looks to have almost peaked already and we think that it will gradually start to head down... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus When and how fast will the MPC tighten? While there is no urgency for the MPC to dampen inflationary pressures, the extraordinary starting point of policy and general resilience of the economy suggest that UK interest rates are likely to... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Election 2017 Preview With major differences between the main parties both on Brexit and the stance and mix of fiscal policy, the outcome of the general election on June 8th could have a rather greater impact on the... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2017: OBR ties Hammond’s hands The Office for Budget Responsibility’s caution on both the economic and fiscal outlook limited the Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre in this last spring Budget. But he still has a little room to loosen... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2017 Preview The more rapid improvement in the public finances than anticipated in the Autumn Statement, should give the Chancellor a borrowing windfall. However, the recent strength in the economy means that... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policy help or hinder? The response from policy makers is one of the main reasons that the UK economy has so far weathered the Brexit vote well. And there are reasons to think that monetary and fiscal policy can continue to... 13th February 2017 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus What have we learned about Brexit? The prospect of Brexit has proved much less damaging to the UK economy than most forecasters expected after the referendum seven months ago. And while there is still much uncertainty over what Brexit... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How worried should we be about inflation? Sterling’s post-referendum fall has clearly put inflation on a steep upward trajectory this year. But there are reasons to think that the forthcoming rise in CPI inflation won’t be too great and that... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
