UK Economics Focus How would the economy weather a no deal Brexit? The impact of a no deal Brexit on the economy would depend on what sort of no deal it was, but there would be at least some negative effect in the short term. If the UK left the EU on bad terms, the... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is austerity nearly over? The worst bit of austerity is behind us, but it is by no means over. There are powerful reasons for taking further action to reduce the public sector debt burden. So we think that the Government will... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Higher oil and food prices won’t prevent inflation falling The rises in energy and agricultural commodity prices and sterling’s recent fall will put some upward pressure on inflation, but we doubt that these factors will prevent it from easing from 2.5% now... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will Brexit red lines be rubbed out? With the deadline for finalising the withdrawal agreement and a framework for the UK’s future relationship with the EU fast approaching, many issues are still unresolved – not least the Irish border... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Should we fear a Labour government? Forget Brexit – the biggest thing to happen to the UK economy over the next couple of years could be the advent of a Labour government, and a particularly left-wing one at that. On the plus side, this... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the long-term outlook really so bad? There appears to be a developing consensus that the degree of permanent scarring from the financial crisis is worse than initially thought and that the UK economy has been condemned to the slow lane... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Response – Jam tomorrow While the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) latest forecasts failed to deliver the expected “growth windfall”, the Chancellor still managed to maintain an upbeat tone in the Spring Statement... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Preview – Banking the growth windfall Things seem to be going the Chancellor’s way at the moment (for a change). Not only did GDP grow more strongly in 2017 than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted, and the public... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How much longer will the consumer squeeze last? 2017 was a fairly dismal year for consumers. With prices rising more quickly than wages, consumer spending growth has halved since 2016. But is the worst of the squeeze now behind us, or is there... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will Brexit uncertainty finally bite in 2018? A key reason why most forecasters were too gloomy about the UK economy last year was that Brexit-related uncertainty was much less damaging than they had expected. Judging by the gloominess of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Response – Chancellor defies OBR’s gloom As expected, the Chancellor Philip Hammond was constrained by the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) gloom over the economic outlook. Nonetheless, recent favourable fiscal trends and some timely... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Preview – OBR will box the Chancellor in The Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre in the Budget on 22nd November will be severely restricted by a gloomier outlook for economic growth. We expect a broadly fiscally neutral package of measures to... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How is Brexit shaping up? This Focus discusses what we have learnt about the Brexit negotiations so far. It addresses four key questions. First, are there now signs that Brexit worries are weighing on the economy? Second, how... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will exports and investment pick up the baton? While the fall in the pound hasn’t yet boosted net trade, there are signs that the external sector will soon start making positive contributions to GDP growth. The depreciation should also support... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can consumers survive the pay squeeze? With the effects of the lower pound appearing to be fading at the start of the production line, CPI inflation looks to have almost peaked already and we think that it will gradually start to head down... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus When and how fast will the MPC tighten? While there is no urgency for the MPC to dampen inflationary pressures, the extraordinary starting point of policy and general resilience of the economy suggest that UK interest rates are likely to... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
