UK Economics Focus Is this as good as it gets for households? The strength in consumer spending has been crucial to the economy’s resilience over the past year but there are three reasons why many people think that the consumer sector is living on borrowed time... 15th July 2019 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Focus Political risks and three big economic trends While it is recognised that political developments, such as a no deal Brexit and a Labour government, have the capacity to send the economy in different directions, it’s not as well known that three... 11th July 2019 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Response: A sideshow surprise The Spring Statement was always going to be a sideshow to the Parliamentary votes on Brexit tonight and tomorrow, but the Chancellor managed to provide a small surprise by saying he had more money to... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Preview: A holding operation The Chancellor will probably use his Spring Statement on Wednesday 13th March to show that at a time of extreme political instability and economic uncertainty the public finances are in good health... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Households able to spend, but not yet willing A strong labour market, rising real wages and more supportive fiscal policy should mean that households will be in a pretty good position over the next two years, even if interest rates rise. And once... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How are UK markets positioned for Brexit and the global slowdown? In this Focus, we consider how sterling, Gilts and UK equities will be affected by the outcome of negotiations over Brexit and the global economic slowdown that we are anticipating. Our judgement is... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Going it alone on monetary and fiscal policy Two of our big non-consensus calls are that in time fiscal policy will become more supportive for the economy than the Chancellor’s current plans suggest and that interest rates will rise a bit more... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will the UK cope with the global slowdown? As long as some form of Brexit deal is agreed this year, then the UK is well placed to shrug off the slowdown in the global economy. In fact, in 2020 the UK may surprise most people by being the... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Response – Hammond splashes the cash As expected, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) gave the Chancellor a helping hand in the Autumn Budget, allowing him to deliver a number of expensive spending pledges, while still managing to... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Preview – waiting for the Brexit fog to clear The greater-than-expected improvement in the public finances over the past few months, should give the Chancellor a windfall to spend at next week’s Budget. But we suspect that the Chancellor will... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How would the economy weather a no deal Brexit? The impact of a no deal Brexit on the economy would depend on what sort of no deal it was, but there would be at least some negative effect in the short term. If the UK left the EU on bad terms, the... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is austerity nearly over? The worst bit of austerity is behind us, but it is by no means over. There are powerful reasons for taking further action to reduce the public sector debt burden. So we think that the Government will... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Higher oil and food prices won’t prevent inflation falling The rises in energy and agricultural commodity prices and sterling’s recent fall will put some upward pressure on inflation, but we doubt that these factors will prevent it from easing from 2.5% now... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will Brexit red lines be rubbed out? With the deadline for finalising the withdrawal agreement and a framework for the UK’s future relationship with the EU fast approaching, many issues are still unresolved – not least the Irish border... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Should we fear a Labour government? Forget Brexit – the biggest thing to happen to the UK economy over the next couple of years could be the advent of a Labour government, and a particularly left-wing one at that. On the plus side, this... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the long-term outlook really so bad? There appears to be a developing consensus that the degree of permanent scarring from the financial crisis is worse than initially thought and that the UK economy has been condemned to the slow lane... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
