UK Economics Focus Average earnings growth to accelerate...modestly The growth of average earnings is likely to pick up over the next two years. We see it accelerating from an average of 3.4% this year to 4% in 2004 and 4.5% in 2005 due to a number of special factors. 11th November 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Neutral interest rates could be lower than you think Predictions from some forecasters that interest rates are set to rise to 5% or above in the current cycle are based at least in part on the assumption that the Monetary Policy Committee will want to... 9th November 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The HICP and interest rates (re-visited) Conventional wisdom has had it that the impending switch in the targeted measure of UK inflation from RPIX to the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) will have either a neutral or downward... 30th September 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal clouds still gathering Recent months have seen renewed concerns over the outlook for the public finances, prompted both by the latest fiscal numbers themselves and worries over the future performance of the economy... 18th August 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The Debt Threat to Consumers’ Expenditure Households have been building up debt at ever increasing rates over the past few years, spurred on by low interest rates and rising house prices. The average household now has debts totalling about... 28th July 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Switch to HICP to bring deflation threat closer to home In his speech on the assessment of the economic tests for UK membership of the euro, the Chancellor confirmed the Treasury’s second worst-kept secret too – that the UK will adopt the European... 16th June 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus There’s life outside the euro Now that the UK has decided not to adopt the euro, attention will turn to the implications of this decision. Many studies in the last year or so have concluded that the UK has already missed out on a... 12th May 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Lower pound should not prevent future rate cuts Today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged presumably reflected a belief amongst MPC members that the drop in the exchange rate will do their job for them. This view is supported by some model... 8th May 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2003: Gambling on Growth Never has there been such a contrast between the thickness of the Budget Red Book and the thinness of the Budget proposals. Indeed, from a macro perspective, the measures added up to nothing at all. 9th April 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus GDP revisions could lower UK growth by up to 1% The recent economic history of the UK is about to be rewritten, and it could make gloomy reading when National Statistics begins using a new method for calculating GDP growth from September... 19th March 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2003 Preview Gordon Brown’s seventh Budget on April 9th will be his most challenging yet. For the second time in six months he will have to admit that his previous forecasts for the economy were too optimistic and... 13th March 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The Government’s hidden £40bn debt The Government is understating its financial liabilities by routing a growing proportion of new spending on public services through public-private partnerships (PPP) and the private finance initiative... 20th February 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK stocks – not just declining, but de-coupling The striking thing about the recent renewed slump in the UK stockmarket is that it has not, for once, been driven by comparable weakness on Wall Street. Indeed, the UK market has significantly... 29th January 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2002 The upward revisions to the Chancellor’s forecasts for public borrowing are rather bigger than we and most forecasters had anticipated. Borrowing is now expected to be £9bn higher at £20bn this year... 27th November 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2002 - Preview This year’s Pre-Budget Report will be very different from the last few, in which Mr Brown has taken advantage of strong economic growth and falling borrowing to make mid-year tax cuts. This time... 19th November 2002 · 1 min read
