UK Economics Focus GDP revisions could lower UK growth by up to 1% The recent economic history of the UK is about to be rewritten, and it could make gloomy reading when National Statistics begins using a new method for calculating GDP growth from September... 19th March 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2003 Preview Gordon Brown’s seventh Budget on April 9th will be his most challenging yet. For the second time in six months he will have to admit that his previous forecasts for the economy were too optimistic and... 13th March 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The Government’s hidden £40bn debt The Government is understating its financial liabilities by routing a growing proportion of new spending on public services through public-private partnerships (PPP) and the private finance initiative... 20th February 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK stocks – not just declining, but de-coupling The striking thing about the recent renewed slump in the UK stockmarket is that it has not, for once, been driven by comparable weakness on Wall Street. Indeed, the UK market has significantly... 29th January 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2002 The upward revisions to the Chancellor’s forecasts for public borrowing are rather bigger than we and most forecasters had anticipated. Borrowing is now expected to be £9bn higher at £20bn this year... 27th November 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2002 - Preview This year’s Pre-Budget Report will be very different from the last few, in which Mr Brown has taken advantage of strong economic growth and falling borrowing to make mid-year tax cuts. This time... 19th November 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus MPC unity a sign of weakness? The last year or so has seen an almost unprecedented degree of unity between members of the UK’s Monetary Policy Committee. Not only have interest rates themselves been left on hold for 11 months, but... 6th November 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The Economic & Financial Consequences of War Market participants and policymakers are concerned that a military conflict with Iraq could push the US and world economies back towards recession. History, however, suggests that wars have tended to... 27th September 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The consumer slowdown – who will suffer most? The long-awaited slowdown in consumer spending is finally underway. For companies closely connected with consumers, this is likely to mean a significant change from the exceptionally buoyant... 28th August 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Housing forms a major barrier to UK adoption of the euro Structural differences between the UK and continental European housing markets are a major barrier to Britain adopting the euro. Because of the large proportion of variable-rate mortgages in the UK... 26th July 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Monetary policy saves the world, but it will be harder next time For the second time in five years, monetary policy has saved the world from what looked like certain recession. If this signals that monetary policy has become more effective in smoothing the path of... 23rd July 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The house price earnings ratio is a good measure of housing valuations – and it is signalling danger. We have long argued that houses are over-valued, based on evidence from the house-price earnings ratio (HPE). But some commentators argue that the HPE is no longer a credible leading indicator of... 20th June 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The Furore over Q1 GDP – Is Oil the Answer? The Q1 GDP figures display a clear disparity between the nominal figures, which show a healthy 1.3% rise in the first three months, and the real figures, which imply that output stagnated over the... 31st May 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2002: A Gamble on the Economy - and the NHS The leaks about this year’s budget were half right. The increases in spending are indeed enormous, concentrated on the NHS, but the tax rises on individuals are smaller than we had been led to believe... 17th April 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus House prices – the alarm bells are ringing House prices are currently rising by between 14% and 16% a year, giving rise to fears of a looming crash. A key indicator of whether or not house prices are sustainable is their relationship to... 12th April 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2002 Preview In contrast to his previous five Budgets, Mr Brown will present his sixth against a deteriorating fiscal background. Coupled with the pressures to maintain strong spending growth in key public... 28th March 2002 · 1 min read
