UK Economics Focus The election and its implications for the economy and markets The election on 12th December is likely to mark the beginning of a new phase for the UK economy, determining not only the type of Brexit (or if Brexit happens at all) but also the size and shape of... 26th November 2019 · 19 mins read
UK Economics Focus OBR to drive final nail into the fiscal rules coffin Although the Office for Budget Responsibility won’t expose the full deterioration in the public finances when it updates its forecasts on Thursday, it’s clear that it is only a matter of time before... 6th November 2019 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Focus Rewriting the fiscal rules One way or another, the UK is destined for looser fiscal policy. How much and in what form is unclear, but the one thing that is clear is that it will require a new set of fiscal rules. There are many... 24th October 2019 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Focus How low can the natural rate of unemployment go? A continued decline in the natural rate of unemployment over the past 15 years means that there is probably a little bit more slack in the labour market than indicated by the near-record low... 2nd October 2019 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Focus Will the big current account deficit cause a problem? Were the UK an emerging market the hedge fund vultures would already be circling following the rise in the current account deficit to 4% of GDP last year – the largest in the developed world. While... 22nd July 2019 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Focus Brexit not the only driver of UK financial markets While we think that the twists and turns of the UK’s journey out of the European Union will have a bearing on Gilts and sterling, that won’t be the only factor driving them. What’s more, we doubt that... 17th July 2019 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Focus Is this as good as it gets for households? The strength in consumer spending has been crucial to the economy’s resilience over the past year but there are three reasons why many people think that the consumer sector is living on borrowed time... 15th July 2019 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Focus Political risks and three big economic trends While it is recognised that political developments, such as a no deal Brexit and a Labour government, have the capacity to send the economy in different directions, it’s not as well known that three... 11th July 2019 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Response: A sideshow surprise The Spring Statement was always going to be a sideshow to the Parliamentary votes on Brexit tonight and tomorrow, but the Chancellor managed to provide a small surprise by saying he had more money to... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Preview: A holding operation The Chancellor will probably use his Spring Statement on Wednesday 13th March to show that at a time of extreme political instability and economic uncertainty the public finances are in good health... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Households able to spend, but not yet willing A strong labour market, rising real wages and more supportive fiscal policy should mean that households will be in a pretty good position over the next two years, even if interest rates rise. And once... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How are UK markets positioned for Brexit and the global slowdown? In this Focus, we consider how sterling, Gilts and UK equities will be affected by the outcome of negotiations over Brexit and the global economic slowdown that we are anticipating. Our judgement is... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Going it alone on monetary and fiscal policy Two of our big non-consensus calls are that in time fiscal policy will become more supportive for the economy than the Chancellor’s current plans suggest and that interest rates will rise a bit more... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will the UK cope with the global slowdown? As long as some form of Brexit deal is agreed this year, then the UK is well placed to shrug off the slowdown in the global economy. In fact, in 2020 the UK may surprise most people by being the... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Response – Hammond splashes the cash As expected, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) gave the Chancellor a helping hand in the Autumn Budget, allowing him to deliver a number of expensive spending pledges, while still managing to... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Preview – waiting for the Brexit fog to clear The greater-than-expected improvement in the public finances over the past few months, should give the Chancellor a windfall to spend at next week’s Budget. But we suspect that the Chancellor will... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
