UK Economics Focus Trend towards self employment to keep a lid on wages growth Wages growth has remained remarkably subdued in recent months, with last month’s data showing annual average earnings growth of just 3.2%. But with the labour market data also showing employment... 3rd February 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Which survey should we believe? After flitting in and out of recession for the last five years, the manufacturing sector has seen signs in recent months that conditions are finally improving. In particular, the CIPS Report on... 11th December 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2003 As usual, the Pre-Budget Report contained little in the way of major fiscal measures. Of more interest were the new economic and fiscal forecasts, which revealed much higher public borrowing than was... 10th December 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2003 - Preview Gordon Brown will present his seventh Pre-Budget Report (PBR) on December 10th against a now familiar background of rapidly escalating public borrowing. We expect him to push his forecast for Public... 3rd December 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Gearing up for a household borrowing slowdown Household debt continues to rise at worryingly rapid rates, having already reached record highs relative to households’ income. Admittedly, debt servicing costs are historically low, with interest... 26th November 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The return of negative equity With the threat of falling house prices around the corner, the question inevitably arises of whether we are about to see a return of the widespread negative equity of the 1990s, when thousands of... 20th November 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Average earnings growth to accelerate...modestly The growth of average earnings is likely to pick up over the next two years. We see it accelerating from an average of 3.4% this year to 4% in 2004 and 4.5% in 2005 due to a number of special factors. 11th November 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Neutral interest rates could be lower than you think Predictions from some forecasters that interest rates are set to rise to 5% or above in the current cycle are based at least in part on the assumption that the Monetary Policy Committee will want to... 9th November 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The HICP and interest rates (re-visited) Conventional wisdom has had it that the impending switch in the targeted measure of UK inflation from RPIX to the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) will have either a neutral or downward... 30th September 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal clouds still gathering Recent months have seen renewed concerns over the outlook for the public finances, prompted both by the latest fiscal numbers themselves and worries over the future performance of the economy... 18th August 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The Debt Threat to Consumers’ Expenditure Households have been building up debt at ever increasing rates over the past few years, spurred on by low interest rates and rising house prices. The average household now has debts totalling about... 28th July 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Switch to HICP to bring deflation threat closer to home In his speech on the assessment of the economic tests for UK membership of the euro, the Chancellor confirmed the Treasury’s second worst-kept secret too – that the UK will adopt the European... 16th June 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus There’s life outside the euro Now that the UK has decided not to adopt the euro, attention will turn to the implications of this decision. Many studies in the last year or so have concluded that the UK has already missed out on a... 12th May 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Lower pound should not prevent future rate cuts Today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged presumably reflected a belief amongst MPC members that the drop in the exchange rate will do their job for them. This view is supported by some model... 8th May 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2003: Gambling on Growth Never has there been such a contrast between the thickness of the Budget Red Book and the thinness of the Budget proposals. Indeed, from a macro perspective, the measures added up to nothing at all. 9th April 2003 · 1 min read
