UK Economics Focus Budget 2005 Preview Gordon Brown presents his ninth Budget on Wednesday 16th March against a pretty favourable economic backdrop. As he will no doubt remind us, his prediction a year ago that the economy would grow by at... 2nd March 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus MPC may be too sanguine on link between housing & spending The Monetary Policy Committee has soothed concerns over the recent slowdown in the housing market by pointing out that the link between house prices and household spending has loosened markedly in... 14th February 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus MPC may be too sanguine on link between housing & spending The Monetary Policy Committee has soothed concerns over the recent slowdown in the housing market by pointing out that the link between house prices and household spending has loosened markedly in... 14th February 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The three hurdles facing UK exports Over the last decade the weakness of the UK’s external sector has been more than offset by the strength of domestic demand. But now that domestic demand is weakening as the housing market slows, the... 7th February 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The falling dollar’s threat to the UK The realignment of the US dollar against the world’s other major currencies has pushed the dollar/pound exchange rate to its highest levels since Black Wednesday and put a $2.00 pound within reach... 27th January 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Average earnings growth no barrier to lower interest rates Average earnings growth has recently started to edge dangerously close to the 4.5% threshold which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has previously stated is the maximum consistent with meeting its... 12th January 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Unemployment might not live down to expectations At the heart of the consensus view that the housing market and the economy as a whole will see a relatively soft landing over the next year or two is the assumption that unemployment will remain at... 15th December 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2004 Gordon Brown did his best to play Santa to parents and children in the Pre-Budget Report, but the poor state of the public finances meant that his Christmas sack was virtually empty. The childcare... 2nd December 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2004 - Preview Gordon Brown will present the Pre-Budget Report (PBR) on Thursday 1st December against a mixed economic backdrop. The good news is that his optimism towards the economy this year has been justified by... 26th November 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Should we be worried about M4? While most economic indicators have pointed to a slowdown in the growth of the UK economy in recent months, one has pointed strongly in the opposite direction. The growth of the broad money supply has... 8th November 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Economics Special - Will the housing downturn derail the economy? The housing market is slowing and, if history is anything to go by, that spells seriously bad news for the UK economy. Each of the three previous major housing downturns since the 1960s has been... 29th September 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are the trade data hiding an improvement? It has been suggested that one reason why the UK’s trade position has failed to improve in response to the global economic recovery is the mismeasurement of trade flows. Indeed, National Statistics... 15th September 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Retail sales are just one side of the coin The monthly retail sales numbers attract the most attention as a measure of the strength of household spending. However, they have recently been a far from reliable guide to whether the boom in total... 6th September 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Getting a better measure of market rate expectations The most frequently used method of estimating the markets’ expectations for the official interest rate is to derive an implied path from short sterling futures contracts. On the face of it, these... 17th August 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Time to start thinking about lower interest rates? With UK interest rates still firmly in the up-phase of the cycle, markets and commentators alike have continued to focus on exactly how far rates are likely to rise. So far, they appear to have given... 9th August 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus No room for mavericks in Mervyn’s Kingdom? The last year or so has seen an unprecedented degree of unity in the voting behaviour of members of the Monetary Policy Committee. Only once in the last 12 months has the size of the majority slipped... 29th July 2004 · 1 min read
