UK Economics Focus Higher tax-take weighs down on households The slowdown in household income growth that has driven a large part of the recent spending downturn has come as something of a surprise. Particularly puzzling is the 12% or so rise in the amount of... 23rd November 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The consumer confidence conundrum One of the surprising elements of the recent slowdown in the economy is that consumer confidence has held up rather more strongly than most other indicators of consumer activity. Even after October’s... 8th November 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The consumer confidence conundrum One of the surprising elements of the recent slowdown in the economy is that consumer confidence has held up rather more strongly than most other indicators of consumer activity. Even after October’s... 8th November 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the economy stronger than it looks? One of the factors behind the reluctance of the Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates further in response to the apparent sharp slowdown in the economy over the last year is a belief amongst... 2nd November 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Household debt goes bad Bad debt is on the rise, with households finally bowing under the pressure of their £1 trillion debt mountain. So far, the increase has been relatively modest. But over the next two or three years, we... 26th October 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Household debt goes bad Bad debt is on the rise, with households finally bowing under the pressure of their £1 trillion debt mountain. So far, the increase has been relatively modest. But over the next two or three years, we... 26th October 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Prospects for inflation in the UK UK consumer price inflation has picked up sharply over the last year. Although this has been largely driven by the strength of global oil prices, the UK’s susceptibility to such developments in the... 13th October 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the switch to CPI blocking rate cuts? The switch to the consumer prices index as the targeted measure of inflation in 2003 may be having unintended and unfavourable effects on the UK economy by keeping interest rates higher than they... 22nd September 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Making the most of lower interest rates The disparity between the markets’ current interest expectations for official UK interest rates and our forecast that they will fall to 3.5% next year suggests that there are opportunities for both... 6th September 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The New Mavericks The last six months or so have seen a significant increase in disagreement amongst members of the Monetary Policy Committee. This trend culminated in the August meeting at which, for the first time... 23rd August 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Higher savings still the key threat to household spending The most striking thing about the slowdown in UK household spending in recent quarters is that it has occurred without what we, at least, had felt was the key threat to the spending outlook – namely... 11th August 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Higher savings still the key threat to household spending The most striking thing about the slowdown in UK household spending in recent quarters is that it has occurred without what we, at least, had felt was the key threat to the spending outlook – namely... 11th August 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Lower interest rates may not kick-start spending Relief is finally on its way for UK consumers in the form of lower interest rates. But there are a number of reasons why rate cuts might prove less powerful than in the past, meaning that those hoping... 4th August 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Lower interest rates may not kick-start spending Relief is finally on its way for UK consumers in the form of lower interest rates. But there are a number of reasons why rate cuts might prove less powerful than in the past, meaning that those hoping... 4th August 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sterling on the brink The sterling exchange rate could be on the brink of a major downward adjustment. This could have positive implications for the economy if it revives the beleaguered export sector and leads to better... 12th July 2005 · 1 min read
