UK Economics Focus Swap Spreads - An Unconventional View Conventional thinking suggests that changes in UK swap spreads are determined by movements in the level of credit risk and the liquidity premium. But our research suggests that much more powerful... 17th January 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pay rises to remain subdued in January pay-round While there have so far been few signs of any second-round effects on wages growth from last year’s rise in headline inflation, the MPC has signalled that there is one crucial hurdle yet to clear... 9th January 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Pre-Budget Report - Bloodied, but unbowed Gordon Brown swapped his annual Santa Claus act for something closer to Robin Hood, taking from the rich oil companies to give to poorer families and pensioners. Sooner or later, however, he will have... 5th December 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus No free lunch in corporate tax hikes Speculation that taxes will need to rise in the UK has largely assumed that households will bear the brunt of any increases. And yet the recent weakness of household spending and the contrasting... 28th November 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2005 - Preview This year’s Pre-Budget Report on December 5th will be an uncomfortable experience for Gordon Brown. Having been proved right on the economy last year, this time he will have to admit he has got it... 24th November 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Higher tax-take weighs down on households The slowdown in household income growth that has driven a large part of the recent spending downturn has come as something of a surprise. Particularly puzzling is the 12% or so rise in the amount of... 23rd November 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Higher tax-take weighs down on households The slowdown in household income growth that has driven a large part of the recent spending downturn has come as something of a surprise. Particularly puzzling is the 12% or so rise in the amount of... 23rd November 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The consumer confidence conundrum One of the surprising elements of the recent slowdown in the economy is that consumer confidence has held up rather more strongly than most other indicators of consumer activity. Even after October’s... 8th November 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The consumer confidence conundrum One of the surprising elements of the recent slowdown in the economy is that consumer confidence has held up rather more strongly than most other indicators of consumer activity. Even after October’s... 8th November 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the economy stronger than it looks? One of the factors behind the reluctance of the Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates further in response to the apparent sharp slowdown in the economy over the last year is a belief amongst... 2nd November 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Household debt goes bad Bad debt is on the rise, with households finally bowing under the pressure of their £1 trillion debt mountain. So far, the increase has been relatively modest. But over the next two or three years, we... 26th October 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Household debt goes bad Bad debt is on the rise, with households finally bowing under the pressure of their £1 trillion debt mountain. So far, the increase has been relatively modest. But over the next two or three years, we... 26th October 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Prospects for inflation in the UK UK consumer price inflation has picked up sharply over the last year. Although this has been largely driven by the strength of global oil prices, the UK’s susceptibility to such developments in the... 13th October 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the switch to CPI blocking rate cuts? The switch to the consumer prices index as the targeted measure of inflation in 2003 may be having unintended and unfavourable effects on the UK economy by keeping interest rates higher than they... 22nd September 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Making the most of lower interest rates The disparity between the markets’ current interest expectations for official UK interest rates and our forecast that they will fall to 3.5% next year suggests that there are opportunities for both... 6th September 2005 · 1 min read
