UK Economics Focus Outlook still weak for household goods sales Sales of household goods have suffered particularly badly over the last year, as both the housing market and overall consumer spending have slowed. But there are now tentative signs that the sector... 16th March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2006 Preview We expect Gordon Brown’s tenth Budget to contain tax increases worth £3bn to £4bn, probably rather larger than most people will expect. If we are right, the resulting tightening of the fiscal stance... 8th March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Budget: Building the new war chest We expect Gordon Brown’s tenth Budget to contain tax increases worth £3bn to £4bn, probably rather larger than most people will expect. If we are right, the resulting tightening of the fiscal stance... 8th March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Corporate recovery at threat from pension fund deficits The gaping hole in corporate pension funds has been exacerbated by the recent drop in UK long bond yields, which are used to discount the value of future pension liabilities. In order to eliminate... 22nd February 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Strong demand for retail floorspace unlikely to persist The continued enthusiasm of retailers to take on extra retail space over the last year or so has been somewhat surprising in the face of their recent rise in costs and the slowdown in retail sales... 20th February 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Strong demand for retail floorspace unlikely to persist The continued enthusiasm of retailers to take on extra retail space over the last year or so has been somewhat surprising in the face of their recent rise in costs and the slowdown in retail sales... 20th February 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Global asset prices at risk from higher Japanese rates In this Focus we argue that monetary tightening in Japan is a potential trigger for a sharp correction in bond markets and other asset prices in the West. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to start to... 16th February 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Has the consumer slowdown run its course? The relatively strong performance of retail sales over the crucial Christmas period has further raised hopes that consumer spending is on the road to recovery. But while there is no doubt that the... 6th February 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are US Bonds Over-valued? Our analysis suggests that US bonds are currently overvalued, with ten year bond yields around 0.5- 1.0% below long-term sustainable levels. There are two key factors underpinning this conclusion. 31st January 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus When can the MPC relax on inflation? A key factor preventing the Monetary Policy Committee from cutting interest rates further has been the threat that last year’s rise in CPI inflation will have knock-on effects on inflation... 30th January 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Swap Spreads - An Unconventional View Conventional thinking suggests that changes in UK swap spreads are determined by movements in the level of credit risk and the liquidity premium. But our research suggests that much more powerful... 17th January 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pay rises to remain subdued in January pay-round While there have so far been few signs of any second-round effects on wages growth from last year’s rise in headline inflation, the MPC has signalled that there is one crucial hurdle yet to clear... 9th January 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Pre-Budget Report - Bloodied, but unbowed Gordon Brown swapped his annual Santa Claus act for something closer to Robin Hood, taking from the rich oil companies to give to poorer families and pensioners. Sooner or later, however, he will have... 5th December 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus No free lunch in corporate tax hikes Speculation that taxes will need to rise in the UK has largely assumed that households will bear the brunt of any increases. And yet the recent weakness of household spending and the contrasting... 28th November 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2005 - Preview This year’s Pre-Budget Report on December 5th will be an uncomfortable experience for Gordon Brown. Having been proved right on the economy last year, this time he will have to admit he has got it... 24th November 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Higher tax-take weighs down on households The slowdown in household income growth that has driven a large part of the recent spending downturn has come as something of a surprise. Particularly puzzling is the 12% or so rise in the amount of... 23rd November 2005 · 1 min read
