UK Economics Focus Are UK households saving at all? Amidst the concern about the state of households’ balance sheets, one source of reassurance appears to be the fact that savings in the UK are still much higher than in the US. Indeed, the US saving... 4th April 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Immigration to keep wage pressures subdued The rise in immigration after the expansion of the EU in 2004 could be one of the most important developments in the UK economy in recent years. But we doubt that this rise has been fully captured in... 27th March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2006 In macro-economic terms this was one of the least significant budgets in living memory. The net giveaway in the coming year was a mere £400 million, counterbalanced by a £400 million claw back the... 22nd March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2006 In macro-economic terms this was one of the least significant budgets in living memory. The net giveaway in the coming year was a mere £400 million, counterbalanced by a £400 million claw back the... 22nd March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How much should we worry about US protectionism? The increase in protectionist pressures in the US is likely to come to a head in April, when Chinese President Hu Jintao visits Washington. In a worst case this could result in a trade war with... 21st March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Outlook still weak for household goods sales Sales of household goods have suffered particularly badly over the last year, as both the housing market and overall consumer spending have slowed. But there are now tentative signs that the sector... 16th March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Outlook still weak for household goods sales Sales of household goods have suffered particularly badly over the last year, as both the housing market and overall consumer spending have slowed. But there are now tentative signs that the sector... 16th March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2006 Preview We expect Gordon Brown’s tenth Budget to contain tax increases worth £3bn to £4bn, probably rather larger than most people will expect. If we are right, the resulting tightening of the fiscal stance... 8th March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Budget: Building the new war chest We expect Gordon Brown’s tenth Budget to contain tax increases worth £3bn to £4bn, probably rather larger than most people will expect. If we are right, the resulting tightening of the fiscal stance... 8th March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Corporate recovery at threat from pension fund deficits The gaping hole in corporate pension funds has been exacerbated by the recent drop in UK long bond yields, which are used to discount the value of future pension liabilities. In order to eliminate... 22nd February 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Strong demand for retail floorspace unlikely to persist The continued enthusiasm of retailers to take on extra retail space over the last year or so has been somewhat surprising in the face of their recent rise in costs and the slowdown in retail sales... 20th February 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Strong demand for retail floorspace unlikely to persist The continued enthusiasm of retailers to take on extra retail space over the last year or so has been somewhat surprising in the face of their recent rise in costs and the slowdown in retail sales... 20th February 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Global asset prices at risk from higher Japanese rates In this Focus we argue that monetary tightening in Japan is a potential trigger for a sharp correction in bond markets and other asset prices in the West. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to start to... 16th February 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Has the consumer slowdown run its course? The relatively strong performance of retail sales over the crucial Christmas period has further raised hopes that consumer spending is on the road to recovery. But while there is no doubt that the... 6th February 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are US Bonds Over-valued? Our analysis suggests that US bonds are currently overvalued, with ten year bond yields around 0.5- 1.0% below long-term sustainable levels. There are two key factors underpinning this conclusion. 31st January 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus When can the MPC relax on inflation? A key factor preventing the Monetary Policy Committee from cutting interest rates further has been the threat that last year’s rise in CPI inflation will have knock-on effects on inflation... 30th January 2006 · 1 min read
