UK Economics Focus Subdued income growth to limit spending recovery Unless households reduce their saving further, consumer spending growth will not recover without a pick-up in income growth. But with the growth of household income set to remain subdued, we think... 16th October 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Subdued income growth to limit spending recovery Unless households reduce their saving further, consumer spending growth will not recover without a pick-up in income growth. But with the growth of household income set to remain subdued, we think... 16th October 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The impact of VAT import fraud on the public finances In recent years the Treasury has lost an increasing amount of tax revenue to VAT import fraud. But this fraud is unlikely to have been as prevalent as some of the figures published in the press... 5th October 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How far can retailers widen their margins? The recent combination of rising cost pressures and subdued inflation on the high street implies that retailers’ margins have borne the brunt of the rises in energy costs. With a recovery in retail... 20th September 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How far can retailers widen their margins? The recent combination of rising cost pressures and subdued inflation on the high street implies that retailers’ margins have borne the brunt of the rises in energy costs. With a recovery in retail... 20th September 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is UK plc investing enough? With nominal business investment currently at an historical low as a share of GDP, the corporate sector’s investment in the capital stock and the future health of the economy appears to be woefully... 23rd August 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Endowment shortfalls - another drag on consumer spending? Households have certainly not had it easy over the last year or so. And one factor which presents a further threat to spending over the next few years is the projected shortfalls on endowment... 2nd August 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Endowment shortfalls - another drag on consumer spending? Households have certainly not had it easy over the last year or so. And one factor which presents a further threat to spending over the next few years is the projected shortfalls on endowment... 2nd August 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Saving for old age presents a long-term threat to spending Households are gradually waking up to the fact that they are not making adequate provisions for their retirement. As such, higher saving for old age could be crucial in prompting the recent rise in... 19th July 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Saving for old age presents a long-term threat to spending Households are gradually waking up to the fact that they are not making adequate provisions for their retirement. As such, higher saving for old age could be crucial in prompting the recent rise in... 19th July 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The energy price threat to the UK economy Higher energy prices remain a significant threat to the UK economy. This is despite the fact that growth and inflation have appeared to be largely unscathed from recent rises in oil and wholesale gas... 10th July 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is inflation back from the dead? Recent signs of higher inflation in many advanced economies have prompted the question of whether inflation is back from the dead. Our answer is a qualified “no”. The shift to an era of low inflation... 30th May 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sterling’s rise eases pressure to raise rates The MPC’s latest forecasts suggested that interest rates would need to rise for the 2% inflation target to be hit. But these forecasts did not count on the recent rise in the sterling exchange rate... 30th May 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Commodity prices: current highs are not sustainable Commodity prices are now unsustainably high. We expect supply to continue to rise rapidly, since rising prices have greatly increased producers’ profitability. Mineral reserves are more than adequate... 5th May 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Still some slack in the economy While the picture is far from clear, there are some signs that a fair amount of spare capacity remains in the economy. With real GDP growth showing signs of returning to its trend rate, this could be... 19th April 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are UK households saving at all? Amidst the concern about the state of households’ balance sheets, one source of reassurance appears to be the fact that savings in the UK are still much higher than in the US. Indeed, the US saving... 4th April 2006 · 1 min read
