UK Economics Focus What would a Labour government mean for the economy? Labour’s big lead in the polls raises the question of what difference a Labour government would make to the economic outlook. The answer is probably not much. A tight grip on the public finances is... 9th January 2023 · 26 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Fiscal Statement – Restoring credibility In his Autumn Statement, the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, appears to have pulled off the tricky task of reassuring the financial markets of the government’s fiscal discipline while also managing not to... 17th November 2022 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement November 2022 – Preview In his Autumn Statement on 17 th November the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, faces a deep dilemma. If he wants to reassure the markets, he will have to announce early action in the form of a big fiscal... 10th November 2022 · 19 mins read
FX Markets Focus What to make of the sterling quagmire While the UK government’s apparent U-turn on fiscal policy offers some hope of relief for sterling, we think the outlook remains precarious. We continue to expect that sterling will lose further... 20th October 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Focus Medium-Term Fiscal Plan October 2022 – Preview As the new Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, unveils whether, when and how he will put public debt on a sustainable path in his Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on Monday 31st October, the big question will be whether... 20th October 2022 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Fiscal Statement – Big political bang, smaller economic boost The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, provided more support to the economy than we had expected over the next few years in today’s Spring Fiscal Statement, but he could have gone further in 2022/23. Instead... 23rd March 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Fiscal Statement 2022 – Preview The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, will use his Spring Statement on 23 rd March to soften the blow for households facing rising energy and food costs. However, any hopes that he will announce a big handout... 16th March 2022 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Focus Fewer workers, higher wages We think that most of the fall in the size of the UK’s labour force since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic should eventually be reversed. Even so, we wouldn’t be surprised if this took another two... 14th March 2022 · 19 mins read
UK Economics Budget October 2021 – OBR delivers for Sunak This Budget was perhaps more notable for what the Chancellor didn’t do rather than what he did. The OBR handed Rishi Sunak a significant upgrade to its forecasts for the public finances but, while the... 27th October 2021 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Focus The economics of Scottish independence look more difficult The interactions between Brexit, the deterioration in Scotland’s fiscal situation and the continued lack of an easy option for the currency have made the economics of Scottish independence even more... 7th September 2021 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Focus Most labour shortages will probably be temporary The widely reported labour shortages should mostly prove temporary. While it may take 6-12 months before some of the underlying causes unwind, recruitment difficulties probably won’t have a long... 8th July 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Economics BoE may unwind QE before hiking rates We think there’s a good chance that when the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee starts to tighten monetary policy it will do it by unwinding some quantitative easing before it raises interest... 22nd June 2021 · 25 mins read
UK Economics Focus Pandemic will lead to more inflation…eventually The economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis may not push CPI inflation above 2.0% for a prolonged period until 2023, although there is a risk that it happens sooner. And further ahead, the... 22nd March 2021 · 24 mins read
UK Economics Budget 2021 – Filling the fiscal hole While most governments are focussed squarely on maintaining or increasing fiscal support for their economies, in today’s Budget the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, adopted a different two-staged plan for the... 3rd March 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2021 – Preview While policymakers in the US are wrangling about how much additional stimulus is required, the debate in the UK is more about what tax rises are needed to repair the damage to the public finances... 25th February 2021 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Focus COVID-19 legacy may be higher inflation and bigger public deficits Our view that the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will be quicker and more complete than most forecasters expect suggests that the economic legacy of the crisis may not be a permanently smaller... 8th February 2021 · 19 mins read
