UK Economics Focus Most labour shortages will probably be temporary The widely reported labour shortages should mostly prove temporary. While it may take 6-12 months before some of the underlying causes unwind, recruitment difficulties probably won’t have a long... 8th July 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Economics BoE may unwind QE before hiking rates We think there’s a good chance that when the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee starts to tighten monetary policy it will do it by unwinding some quantitative easing before it raises interest... 22nd June 2021 · 25 mins read
UK Economics Focus Pandemic will lead to more inflation…eventually The economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis may not push CPI inflation above 2.0% for a prolonged period until 2023, although there is a risk that it happens sooner. And further ahead, the... 22nd March 2021 · 24 mins read
UK Economics Budget 2021 – Filling the fiscal hole While most governments are focussed squarely on maintaining or increasing fiscal support for their economies, in today’s Budget the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, adopted a different two-staged plan for the... 3rd March 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2021 – Preview While policymakers in the US are wrangling about how much additional stimulus is required, the debate in the UK is more about what tax rises are needed to repair the damage to the public finances... 25th February 2021 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Focus COVID-19 legacy may be higher inflation and bigger public deficits Our view that the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will be quicker and more complete than most forecasters expect suggests that the economic legacy of the crisis may not be a permanently smaller... 8th February 2021 · 19 mins read
UK Economics Focus Tightening fiscal policy soon would be fiscal folly At some point, there may need to be a fiscal squeeze to pay for any lasting increase in spending caused by the COVID-19 crisis and increases in age-related spending. But the biggest danger is that... 8th December 2020 · 18 mins read
UK Economics Focus Brexit – deal or no deal is not the big issue As the differences between a Brexit deal and a no deal are not as big as they once were, the economic costs of a no deal have diminished. The bigger risk is that relations between the UK and the EU... 1st October 2020 · 44 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will the coronavirus permanently change behaviours? As long as social distancing isn’t practised for many years, then those behavioural changes triggered specifically by the coronavirus crisis will probably prove temporary. But those changes that were... 23rd June 2020 · 33 mins read
UK Economics Focus Another decade of ultra-loose monetary policy The swift and significant response of the Bank of England to the coronavirus crisis has prevented a financial crisis, but we think the Bank will need to do much more than the markets currently expect... 4th June 2020 · 31 mins read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2020 – Austerity is out, spending is in The coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus announced by the Chancellor and the Bank of England today shows that policymakers are pulling out all the stops to ensure that the coronavirus results in... 11th March 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Focus Budget Preview: Safety first The new Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s first priority in the Budget on Wednesday 11th March will be to deliver a package of measures to help those areas of the economy likely to be hit hardest by the... 4th March 2020 · 18 mins read
UK Economics Focus Will the fiscal stimulus deliver much bang for its buck? We think that the coming fiscal stimulus will raise annual GDP growth by about 0.6ppts this year and 0.25ppts in 2021. This is part of the reason why we expect GDP growth to beat the consensus... 3rd February 2020 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Focus What to expect as the UK negotiates its future relationships As the negotiations over the UK’s new relationship with the EU will be arduous and long, business investment probably won’t rise much this year as firms will worry about the risk of there being... 23rd January 2020 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Focus Will the next move in interest rates be up or down? We suspect that interest rates will neither go up nor down this year! But the markets may be caught out further ahead if, as we expect, a fiscal stimulus and easing in Brexit uncertainty results in... 21st January 2020 · 12 mins read
