UK Economics Focus Falling inflation won't prevent consumer slump. Falling inflation will provide a significant boost to households’ spending power over the coming quarters. However, we doubt that real household income growth will rebound strongly enough to prevent... 18th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2008 – Preview Alistair Darling may be the man at the despatch box, but the main architect of this Pre-Budget Report will be John Maynard Keynes. With the Government having firmly signalled its intention to support... 13th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The rebirth of deflation The last year or so has seen widespread concerns that inflation has returned from the dead. But with global commodity prices falling and a deep recession in the UK economy set to create huge amounts... 11th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How far will global house prices fall? To date, only a few major economies have been afflicted by large scale falls in house prices. But all that will change in 2009. Housing is significantly overvalued across much of Europe, as well as in... 29th October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The road to deflation? Inflation pressures across the world are set to fade rapidly over the coming months. Indeed, with oil prices plummeting, food prices set to fall and much weaker levels of demand and activity likely to... 16th October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Durable consumer goods to be hit the hardest During past consumer spending slowdowns, consumer durables, such as household goods and vehicles, have been hit the hardest. And they look likely to come off worst this time too. Spending on... 22nd September 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Durable consumer goods to be hit the hardest During past consumer spending slowdowns, consumer durables, such as household goods and vehicles, have been hit the hardest. And they look likely to come off worst this time too. Spending on... 22nd September 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Lower trend growth won’t stop inflation falling The credit crunch, high oil prices and slowdown in migration may have reduced the economy’s potential or “trend” rate of growth. But this won’t stop the impending recession from creating a large... 9th September 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Drop in bank lending to prompt economy to contract in 2009 With banks’ balance sheets under pressure, UK bank lending is set to rise more slowly, if not fall outright. This will have significant adverse effects on the UK economy, which may already be in... 25th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The shape of recessions past If the coming recession is anything like those seen since 1950, it will last for 18 months and result in a 2.7% fall in real GDP. Thankfully, sharp falls in interest rates next year should mean that... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Dent to bank capital to restrict lending growth UK banks are unlikely to raise enough capital to maintain their recent rates of lending. So even if they overcome their immediate liquidity problems, the credit crunch is unlikely to ease soon. 21st July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus A double whammy for retail revenues Retailers face a double-squeeze on revenues over the next few years. Overall consumer spending growth is clearly set to slow sharply. But in addition, the retail sector is set to continue to take a... 8th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus A double whammy for retail revenues Retailers face a double-squeeze on revenues over the next few years. Overall consumer spending growth is clearly set to slow sharply. But in addition, the retail sector is set to continue to take a... 8th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will companies fare this time? The corporate sector is arguably better placed to weather the economic downturn than either the household or public sector. Nonetheless, profits, investment and employment are all likely to fall... 23rd June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus House prices to fall by 35% In recent months, the housing market correction has gathered momentum. The economy is also poised for three years of sub-trend growth and unemployment looks set to reach a 12-year high. We believe... 17th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Just how high could inflation get? If oil and food prices were to carry on rising, with knock-on effects on core price pressures, UK consumer price inflation could rise above 5% and remain above its 2% target until 2010 and beyond... 12th June 2008 · 1 min read
