UK Economics Focus Lending measures will not fill the hole Lending by those banks which are either wholly or partially state-owned is set to rise significantly. But we continue to doubt that overall lending is on track to grow at the rates needed to get the... 16th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the lower pound stave off deflation? The sharp drop in the sterling exchange rate does not preclude the danger that a short bout of deflation driven by commodity prices later this year will be followed by a broader and longerlasting... 2nd March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Drag from stockbuilding to ease A fall in stockbuilding helps to explain why the economy contracted quite so sharply at the end of last year. Stocks are run down most at the start of a recession, suggesting that GDP should not keep... 25th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Consumer spending rebound unlikely to last The strength of high street spending over the past month or two begs the question of whether we have underestimated the resilience of UK consumers. However, we continue to think that the consumer... 23rd February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Consumer spending rebound unlikely to last The strength of high street spending over the past month or two begs the question of whether we have underestimated the resilience of UK consumers. However, we continue to think that the consumer... 23rd February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The pros and cons of bank nationalisation Speculation is growing that the Government will soon take a majority stake in Lloyds, representing another step towards full nationalisation of large parts of the banking system. Full nationalisation... 16th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can pay freezes prevent further job losses? A number of companies have announced pay freezes in the past week or two. However, even if a significant proportion of the workforce foregoes a pay rise this year, we doubt that further sharp rises in... 11th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The anatomy of the Great Depression of the 1930s There is still no universally accepted single cause of the Great Depression. But our analysis suggests that the main culprit for the role of catalyst was the bursting of the bubbles in the equity and... 19th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What more can policymakers do? Should UK interest rates fall to zero, it is likely that UK policymakers will follow in the footsteps of the US Federal Reserve and adopt a formal policy of quantitative easing (QE). While QE is a... 16th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Much bolder action required to boost bank lending Faced with soaring recession-related bad debts, we doubt that banks, if left to their own devices, will start lending enough to kick-start the economy. The Government will therefore have to force them... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How to spot a recovery – the evidence from past recessions If the recession is to end next year, as is widely expected, past experience suggests that we should already be seeing turning points in leading indicators such as confidence. But with the economic... 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How to spot a recovery – the evidence from past recessions If the recession is to end next year, as is widely expected, past experience suggests that we should already be seeing turning points in leading indicators such as confidence. But with the economic... 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will quantitative easing work? Quantitative easing (QE) is a potentially very powerful tool that could pull economies out of recession and deflation. However, to work fully it may have to be combined with additional measures to... 17th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Life insurers better placed than the banks Now that the Government has stepped in to bail out the UK banks, attention has shifted to which other areas of the financial sector might be in serious trouble. While the insurance sector certainly... 1st December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2008 While the Chancellor was right to try to support the economy with a fiscal boost, he was constrained by the prospect of enormous increases in public borrowing from being able to do nearly enough... 24th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Falling inflation won't prevent consumer slump. Falling inflation will provide a significant boost to households’ spending power over the coming quarters. However, we doubt that real household income growth will rebound strongly enough to prevent... 18th November 2008 · 1 min read
