UK Economics Focus Budget 2010 - Still putting off the inevitable This was a clever budget which made the most of very difficult circumstances. The Chancellor largely avoided the temptation to bribe the voters with their own money. There was a package of tax cuts... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2010 Preview - A holding operation Alistair Darling’s third Budget will be hardly recognisable as the last before a general election. With the UK’s budget deficit baring comparison with that of Greece, the markets and credit rating... 15th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus QE a year on Without the Bank of Englands programme of quantitative easing (QE) launched a year ago, the economy would probably still be in recession. However, the policy has clearly not worked well enough to kick... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus As many Eastern Europeans going as coming Recent migration figures suggest that immigration into the UK has slowed sharply, while the number of migrants leaving the UK has risen. We think that net migration flows are now back to, or even... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the UK catch up in the global recovery? The meagre 0.1% rise in GDP in Q4 showed that the UK is still lagging behind in the global recovery stakes. We think that the UK will fall even further behind over the next year or two. But further... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2009 - Still waiting for the axe to fall Consumers are likely to bear the brunt of the looming tax rises and government spending cuts. The worst year of the fiscal squeeze looks likely to be 2011, when we think that it could knock some 2.5%... 9th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will consumers fare in the fiscal squeeze? Consumers are likely to bear the brunt of the looming tax rises and government spending cuts. The worst year of the fiscal squeeze looks likely to be 2011, when we think that it could knock some 2.5%... 2nd December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2009 Preview - Going for broke? Consumers are likely to bear the brunt of the looming tax rises and government spending cuts. The worst year of the fiscal squeeze looks likely to be 2011, when we think that it could knock some 2.5%... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK faces a decade of high unemployment The recent improvement in the unemployment figures has quietened concerns about the labour market. But we think that much of the labour market adjustment is yet to come. We continue to expect... 12th November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The VAT threat to consumer spending The looming reversal of the temporary VAT cut should boost household spending at the end of this year, as consumers bring forward their spending. But this will just come at the expense of spending... 28th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spare capacity could yet turn inflation negative Inflation is likely to pick up again in the next few months but, further ahead, the huge amount of spare capacity that is building up in the economy will bear down heavily on core price pressures... 13th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus From banking crisis to fiscal crisis? The measures put in place by governments to support their banking sectors and economies have helped to avert a full-scale financial meltdown and a 1930s-style economic depression. But the full costs... 12th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Could the UK have a creditless recovery? With a significant pick-up in bank lending still looking unlikely, hopes are pinned on the economy achieving a so-called “creditless recovery.” This type of upturn has been seen before, both in the UK... 14th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Could the UK have a creditless recovery? With a significant pick-up in bank lending still looking unlikely, hopes are pinned on the economy achieving a so-called “creditless recovery.” This type of upturn has been seen before, both in the UK... 14th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Bank lending still set to fall well short Conditions in the banking system have clearly been improving. However, we doubt that this transforms the lending outlook. Indeed, we continue to think that over the foreseeable future, bank lending... 26th August 2009 · 1 min read
